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re: Kentucky Derby Discussion Thread

Posted on 5/6/16 at 12:54 am to
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 12:54 am to
ever since songbird was ruled out i just have found teh oaks to be anticlimactic. i just don't care about the race because we all know who the best 3YO filly in the country
is.




There is absolutely nothing I like about Nyquist lol. I don't like his pedigree; there is literally nothing, to point to him being able to go 10F. You can't come up with a better sprint pedigree than mo over forestry. you got to go back to seeking the gold to find anything resemebling 2 turns. i don't like his damn line. i dont like the way he's put together, he doesn't look very sound. i don't like the fact that he's been racing since june 5th of last year. i don't like his owner. i damn sure don't like milk shake o'neil. i don't even like the fact that he ran in the florida derby as i'm a legit gulfstream park surface is souped up is for superior beyer speed figures on florida derby day conspiracy theorist. i avoid florida derby horses like the plague on derby day; they run their eyeballs out at Gulfstream and never are the same again, Dunkirk, Quality Road, Orb (though he did win the derby he wasn't the horse he was pre gulfstream), Constitution, Materiality, Take Charge Indy (though he did win as a 4YO), Ice Box, Scat Daddy who was criminally underrated and i believe it had something to do with the Barbaro injury honestly.

but damn. the horse has won 7 in a row and you can't ignore that. but i just don't have it in me to bet him. he's gonna lose lol. he HAS to lose. but at the same time, he's not.


I'll say this, he does have the Seeking the gold in his dam line (his granddam's sire) and seeking the gold's are like awesome again's. they miss a hell of a lot but when they hit, THEY HIT. You're either gonna get a 5k claimer or you're going to get Dubai Millennium lol and there's not gonna be anything in between. Awesome Again was the same i.e Ghostzapper, GAme on Dude, Round Pond, etc

quote:

Aspercel


well Nyquist's Dam is a Louisiana Bred, Seeking Gabrille so there's that. I'm actually seeing mares I remember watching race damn i'm getting old lol
This post was edited on 5/6/16 at 1:01 am
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24804 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 8:00 am to
Nyquist has beaten the fight out of me. I don't like, never have, and he always cooks me. Not tomorrow. If I lose, he loses.
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 8:25 am to
Reminds me of Bernardino. I hated him with a passion, I have never hgated a horse that much but he just kept winning. By breeders cup I have given up and get on him accepting the fate he was a super horse. Loses to invasor.

What happen to Bernardino anyway he started off white hot as a sire. Outside of Rachael's daughter u don't see much if him


If Rachael's Valentina wins it will be the first time a dam and her daughter have won the same grade one race since storm flag flying - my flag both won the breeders cup juvenile fillies. Should have been a three peat really
This post was edited on 5/6/16 at 8:30 am
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24804 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 8:36 am to
It's Bernardini but understood. I was the same with him as well. I was sitting in a box midstretch for that Invasor Classic.
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 8:54 am to
Yeah you have to give me the bell curve with spelling dammit I was close enough lol

OK nap time before races
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107216 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 9:26 am to
I dislike Bernardini as much as the next person, but he's got a ton of nice babies. The usually only have about 5 good races in them, but he's still a six figure stud fee.
Posted by HebertFest08
The Coast
Member since Aug 2008
6398 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 9:43 am to
So far someone who just enjoys watching the big races and goes to the track maybe once a year..... Any tips?
We are hitting the off track place in the morning while going pick up some crawfish. Want to bet on the race but no clue.
Do y'all bet a little on everything? Say like WPS, to win, exacta, trifecta etc...
Or do y'all stay with one type. Again no clue. But definitely want a horse to pull for during the race.
Posted by boonecountyman
madison,wv
Member since May 2010
160 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 9:50 am to
I bought a handicapping aid that is pushing "Gun Runner".He's your local horse so bet him WPS.
Posted by Boudreaux35
BR
Member since Sep 2007
21678 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Or do y'all stay with one type. Again no clue. But definitely want a horse to pull for during the race.


For these TC races, I usually stick with basic bets, WPS. Personally, for most racing, I just try to pick my best single win horse, but for crazy races like the Derby, I might narrow it down to 3.

I want to like Mo Tom because I think he has 2 wins in his past that he got robbed of for whatever the real reason was. I usually always go with late runners in the Derby, but this year there are several and I'm not sure that anyone will really push to early pace to set that up.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107216 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 11:24 am to
Huh. Weep no more is currently sitting 6-1 and my longer shot Maggie is 5-1 oh well.
Posted by boonecountyman
madison,wv
Member since May 2010
160 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 11:28 am to
I'm sure a lot of bettors are thinking Weep No More's win in the Ashland was a fluke.
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
41755 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 12:34 pm to
Just went through the Keeneland drive through bet window. Yes, they do it and the amount of stupid money that is bet on this race is huge. This is what I laid down.

Exaggerator straight across the board
Gun Runner straight across
Exaggerator and Gun Runner boxed
Exaggerator, GunnRunner and Whitmore boxed
Whitmore with Exaggerator boxed
Whitmore with Gun boxed.

Threw in Trojan Horse with Gun and Whitmore to win stupid cash if it hits.

Don't see Nyquest getting in the board...but that fricker could kill my tickets.

My wife's friends horse is out of the 9th post. According to our friend who trains for Pletcher...the horse is training well and could get in the board...I may run to red mile to throw him on some bets.
This post was edited on 5/6/16 at 4:02 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107216 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 1:13 pm to
2races, 2 blowouts
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
41755 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 1:43 pm to
So, favorites winning on a fast track? Going to hot tomorrow, would not go with the horse sweating around kidneys.
Posted by stlslick
St.Louis,Mo
Member since Nov 2012
14157 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 1:46 pm to
no

1 was favorite, and closed to draw off, was much the best, and would of been one of top 3 favorites has she ran in Oaks, so nothing to read off the race, but she was much better.

other was 2nd favorite, was fresh, and sharp, and sat on a slow pace and drew clear.

Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107216 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 1:51 pm to
And damn, did she ever look good off that layoff.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
107216 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 3:21 pm to
I just did a 4 horse oaks/derby double

Maggie, dance, Valentina, weep

Creator, nyquist, outwork, mo tom
Posted by stlslick
St.Louis,Mo
Member since Nov 2012
14157 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 4:19 pm to
I like Lewis Bay in Oaks.

This is Ortiz chance to show on the big stage, that he can ride, and not just in NY.

Horse i still sitting on her biggest race.
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

ure a lot of bettors are thinking Weep No More's win in the Ashland was a fluke.

because it was. So much had to happen for her to win by a nose. Hot pace RV first off layoff RV not seeing her in the stretch. She repeats you tip your hat but in not betting on it
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/6/16 at 4:22 pm to
Jesus look at this dude
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