quote:
How the frick does the NWS miss this forecast by 200 miles? All this rain we were supposed to get in LC ended up in Shreveport. I could understand if it were an hour away or whatnot, but 200 miles?

This is one of NWS's all time busts events here. Thays an understatement.

This has been a very hard system to forecast. The models have really struggled with it and there aren't many analogs for such a highly unusual setup.

Deep tropical moisture is streaming north out of the Gulf resulting in record PWAT across Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. So one of the main ingredients is in place for extreme rainfall but the triggers have been very hard to get a handle on. Numerous waves of energy have been rotating around the base of the system and kicking out across Texas. Each of these waves of energy sets off rounds of thunderstorms. Forecasting convective evolution is still extremely hard and that is making it hard to nail down who gets the most rain and when.

Trends this morning certainly point to SE Texas and SW Louisiana getting in on the action today.

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19821 posts

Posted on 3/9/16 at 2:17 pm to rds dc

quote:
quote:
How the frick does the NWS miss this forecast by 200 miles? All this rain we were supposed to get in LC ended up in Shreveport. I could understand if it were an hour away or whatnot, but 200 miles?

This is one of NWS's all time busts events here. Thays an understatement.

This has been a very hard system to forecast. The models have really struggled with it and there aren't many analogs for such a highly unusual setup.

Deep tropical moisture is streaming north out of the Gulf resulting in record PWAT across Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. So one of the main ingredients is in place for extreme rainfall but the triggers have been very hard to get a handle on. Numerous waves of energy have been rotating around the base of the system and kicking out across Texas. Each of these waves of energy sets off rounds of thunderstorms. Forecasting convective evolution is still extremely hard and that is making it hard to nail down who gets the most rain and when.

Trends this morning certainly point to SE Texas and SW Louisiana getting in on the action today