re: What are some inaccurate beliefs you heard from others?

Here's how I understand it:

If you aren't going to switch, you've got a 33% chance of picking the car on your first guess.

If you are going to switch, picking a goat (67% chance) on your first guess guarantees that you win the car, since Monty removes the other goat every time. Boom new car.

I have no idea if this is a valid explanation, but that's how I wrap my head around it.