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re: Our Defense in numbers

Posted on 12/21/15 at 9:41 am to
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
6014 posts
Posted on 12/21/15 at 9:41 am to
quote:

I'd ask you to elaborate, but I think it's pretty clear we have reached an impasse on this matter.
Let's go back to your statement:
quote:

It should be very telling that the overall yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game went up from last year despite the rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game going down from last year.

(Hint: it means our passing defense got much worse.)
First, the FBS average for yards per pass attempt was 7.27 YPA. (The SEC average was 7.21 YPA.)

Second, the FBS average for yard per carry was 4.49 YPC. (The SEC average was 4.54 YPC.)

Third, what happens if, hypothetically, a team throws the ball 100 times and runs the ball 0 times? If all else remains the same, the team gains 727 yards.

Fourth, what happens if, hypothetically, a team runs the ball 100 times and with 0 pass plays? If all else remains the same, the team gains 449 yards.

Two things should be immediately apparent: (1) if teams throw the ball more against LSU, they will have more yards per play, and (2) if teams throw the ball more against LSU, they will have more yards per game.

Hence, your "very telling" conclusion is erroneous:
quote:

It should be very telling that the overall yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game went up from last year despite the rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game going down from last year.

(Hint: it means our passing defense got much worse.)
One should not surprised to see the overall yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game to go up if the rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game go down.

As an opponent's ability to run the ball decreases, it's likelihood to pass increases.

A shift in the percentage of plays called from running plays to passing plays will generally cause the overall yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game to go up even if the rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game go down.

Moreover, teams that are trailing in a game tend to shift their play calling emphasis away from running to passing. Thus, if LSU's opponents were trailing more in 2015 than in 2014, those opponents would be more likely to attempt pass plays rather than running plays. LSU had a better record this year than last year, so one might expect an increase in pass attempts this year compared to last year.

So let's examine LSU's opponents' attempts per game in 2014 compared to 2015.

2014 Opponents' Attempts Per Game: 29.6
2015 Opponents' Attempts Per Game: 33.0

An additional 3.4 plays would likely result in an additional 20+ yards per game. All of a sudden, 2015 and 2014 begin to look VERY similar, particularly when one notes the absence of the FCS McNeese game.

It is troubling to me that LSU's opponents' YPA increased in 2015 compared to 2014. However, the 2015 YPA is equal to or better than 2013, 2010, and 2008. All in all, the results are not completely unexpected given a new DC and the status of the LSU defense.
Posted by Andre
Cashier at Stein's Deli
Member since Apr 2009
4301 posts
Posted on 12/21/15 at 10:37 am to
quote:


Two things should be immediately apparent: (1) if teams throw the ball more against LSU, they will have more yards per play, and (2) if teams throw the ball more against LSU, they will have more yards per game.

Hence, your "very telling" conclusion is erroneous:


Does that not also mean that, against a good secondary, more pass attempts means more opportunities for that defense to make interceptions? Just something worth pointing out.

quote:

An additional 3.4 plays would likely result in an additional 20+ yards per game. All of a sudden, 2015 and 2014 begin to look VERY similar, particularly when one notes the absence of the FCS McNeese game.

It is troubling to me that LSU's opponents' YPA increased in 2015 compared to 2014. However, the 2015 YPA is equal to or better than 2013, 2010, and 2008.


It should be especially troubling, given that @ Syracuse, vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. South Carolina, vs. Florida, LSU faced a backup quarterback. that's the entire month of october for those playing at home.

quote:

All in all, the results are not completely unexpected given a new DC and the status of the LSU defense.


this is where we disagree. many people who tried to defend this hire said that , given the talent LSU had, theres no way that there would be any significant drop off, even with a coaching change. The defense made too many mental mistakes, very similar to 2013. 2013 was arguably chavis' worst year, but you look at the games that were really bad, and it was @UGA and @bama - against 2 QBs currently on NFL rosters. the only QB LSU faced this season that will be on an NFL roster is Dak.
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