re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS

So where did Joaquin come from?



In the loop above you can see a swirl (ULL that cuts off) start spinning to the SW of 30N 60W and then convection starts to bubble in the region. After a period of time you can see it consolidate and then start to drift SW as Joaquin comes to life. Pretty complex tropical transition process that has been very cool to track over the last week. Then if you look back over Texas & Louisiana you can see ULL/trough spin that gave the models such fits and eventually held 99L in check.

That piece of upper level energy will eventually get caught and absorbed by the next trough dropping down



and then that eventually could "capture" Joaquin and sling shot it into the Mid-Atlantic



Then add in the high latitude blocking, the remnants of Ida, and your always present uncertainty and a very complex setup is unfolding. The NHC is basically just saying, "Umm, yeah, it will kind of go that way at some point..."