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Message
re: Sam Khan Jr. shows what is wrong with LSU offense
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:57 pm to Andre
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:57 pm to Andre
quote:
LSUs running game is so powerful that the offense can afford incomplete pass on 1st down, still get 4-6 yards on a run play on 2nd down, thus keeping harris in 3rd and manageable situations
But why not just run on first down? LSU averaged over 5 yards per 1st down rush.
So, on average you are setting up for a 2nd and 5 (without first down penalties).
If those stats Continue there is very little reason to throw on first down frequently. I'm not saying to never do it.
4
Posted on 9/17/15 at 2:00 pm to lsufan251875
quote:
first down frequently. I'm not saying to never do it.
and I am not saying always do it. But how many first downs did we run vs pass? iirc the 1st negated TD was on first down, but other than that maybe 3 (?) first down passes on 16 first downs.
Posted on 9/17/15 at 2:01 pm to lsufan251875
quote:
So, on average you are setting up for a 2nd and 5 (without first down penalties).
It doesn't work that way, one nice gain of 17 yards means you have three or four plays of minimal gains on three or four other plays, you don't move the chains on average gains. We didn't have drives in the last half we punted a lot.
Posted on 9/17/15 at 3:52 pm to lsufan251875
quote:
But why not just run on first down? LSU averaged over 5 yards per 1st down rush.
Agreed. Just cut out the double-reverses. We don't need those kind of trick plays. Add more misdirection.
Posted on 9/17/15 at 4:51 pm to lsufan251875
quote:
SU averaged over 5 yards per 1st down rush.
So, on average you are setting up for a 2nd and 5
Average is not the key stat. Median would be better. A team that averages 5 per carry almost certainly got 15 or 20 on one play and got stopped cold on two or three others, along with other varying amounts. Very likely, they got less than 5 on the majority of carries, but a couple of long ones got the average up to 5. If the median carry were 5, then yes, your argument would make sense because you'd have 2nd and 5 or less the majority of the time. Averaging 5, you probably have more than 5 to go on the majority of 2nd downs.
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