re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015

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Your use of non-sense jargon that you don't understand almost hid how confused you were. Thanks for bringing this out to clear it up for everybody in plain terms.

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I assumed the posters here are with college level education and some stats background. Apparently I was wrong. Sorry for the confusion it may caused for you.

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Why use pre-game odds? Why not half time odds? Pre-game odds would be different and thus inaccurate by that time by your logic..... His prediction is being made right now so of course he is going to use today odds. Jesus, this is truly remarkable. So many buffoons.

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See, I was not even talking about whether he should use today's odd or the calculation based on his model is wrong. I was talking about different ways to model the process and a overly simplified model cannot lead to meaningful results. Certainly you can use the half time odd to adjust the expectation at half time, and that leads to yet another model superior to OP's.

Although it is not exact, you can view the whole season as a process to estimate some hidden parameters about 'true' power of teams. After each game's outcome the odds are adjusted in favor to better estimate the parameter value, and the estimates converge at end of season. If you plot the estimate values over time it would like a damped oscillation curve. OP's prediction is a peek at the starting value of the curve and it has little information about the end value. Again if you didn't ever heard of the term random process this may not make sense to you at all. Sorry.

Even though you threw some attacking words at me, I won't behave at your level and simply call you stupid. You may be a smart person but are lack of relevant education and background knowledge to discuss the topic. It's not your fault though.