re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015

quote:

---

quote:

---

If you take a bent coin that has a 52% chance of landing on heads and flip it 100 times, your analysis would count all flips as a predictive "win" individually. Thus, your analysis would predict the coin landing on heads 100 times.

---

But I'm only predicting one flip. Comparatively, each additional coin toss would require a different coin with varying degrees of bend.

---

Exactly so, but the principle remains the same. Each football game is like the flip of different coins with varying degrees of bend.

100% . . Coin 1
. 55% . . Coin 3
. 55% . . Coin 3
. 90% . . Coin 4
100% . . Coin 5
. 70% . . Coin 6
. 80% . . Coin 7
100% . . Coin 8
. 30% . . Coin 9
. 65% . . Coin 10
. 45% . . Coin 11
. 70% . . Coin 12

If each of the preceding percentages represents the likelihood of a heads appearing for that coin, and each coin is flipped once, the expected number of heads appearing would be 8.6 rounded to 9.