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re: What are the odds of this happening? Combination lock related
Posted on 7/22/15 at 7:11 pm to Pectus
Posted on 7/22/15 at 7:11 pm to Pectus
quote:Correct given that we know the first combination to unlock it.
That is right, but you need to think there is no way to have a blank number...the suitcase always needs to be on a combination. The first one is a freebie.
999 different guesses need to be made.
But I would also bet that the probability is higher than 1/999 given that he is using some prior information to unlock the briefcase. The probability can't be 1/999.
Bayesian probability?
2
Posted on 7/22/15 at 7:15 pm to Swirlchocolate
Can you eliminate his combo he intended to put it since it slipped, he tried it, and it didn't work before he got his research into cracking it under way?
The bigger odds are that out of the 1000 combos the one it randomly set was his area code. That's what's remarkable.
The bigger odds are that out of the 1000 combos the one it randomly set was his area code. That's what's remarkable.
This post was edited on 7/22/15 at 7:16 pm
Posted on 7/22/15 at 7:31 pm to Swirlchocolate
Think about this:
If we assume there are 1000 possibilities for his combo then the likelihood of it being his are code is 1 in 1000.
Still 175,000 times more likely than winning the Powerball.
If we assume there are 1000 possibilities for his combo then the likelihood of it being his are code is 1 in 1000.
Still 175,000 times more likely than winning the Powerball.
This post was edited on 7/22/15 at 7:32 pm
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