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re: Anthony Davis MVPs by 30 - O/U 1.5?
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:10 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:10 pm to TheSexecutioner
Actually the better correlation is win shares. This year will be no different.
3
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:40 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:I know you're hoping and praying AD can't hit that magical 70 game mark you mentioned, cause that won't help your argument if he does.
Actually the better correlation is win shares
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:42 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Actually the better correlation is win shares
In that case, you have to like AD's chances going forward. He was 4th in the league this year with 14.0 win shares, and his win shares per 48 minutes were second. In fact, his win shares per 48 minutes were higher than any season in Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant's career. Shaq only posted one season with a higher win share per 48.
I'm confident that the only thing stopping AD from winning multiple MVPs in the next 7 seasons is his health. That is it.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:14 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Actually the better correlation is win shares. This year will be no different.
Yup. Good point. But over the course of a 8 year sample, PER is the best predictor of MVPs. Injuries can eliminate the favorite any given year whereas a lower PER potential leaves you at the mercy of you being more healthy than other players.
Is AD injury prone? I think so. He's kind of soft about getting banged up but he doesn't exhibit bad knees or anything that would scare you about missing huge chunks. But he just has so much PER potential that its just a matter of finding a couple of injury-light years. I would project him playing 65-77 games per year and the years where he plays 75+, he should be the favorite for the MVP candidate(starting in 2 years if not next year- might need another Lebron birthday party)
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