re: Virginia, Oklahoma, or Mich St

Nova seems like a team ripe for upset.. lots of question marks.. They've looked damn good but they played a horrible schedule (52nd ranked, just ahead of Nebraska and George Mason.) Jay Wright's made the tournament 12 times and only made it to the elite 8 twice though and historically coaches with that kind of resume actually underachieve their seeds expected number of wins.

Of note:
They were upset last year in a 2-7 match up.
Last time they made the final four they were actually a 3 seed.
Last time they were a #1 seed (2006) they lost in the elite 8 to a 3 seed Florida.