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Which SP's with ADP's over 200 are you planning to target?
Posted on 3/13/15 at 10:55 am
Posted on 3/13/15 at 10:55 am
The ADP's are from ESPN
Here are a few that I plan to target
Scott Kazmir (213 ADP)- Injury will always be a risk but given how late he is going I think drafting him is well worth the risk. Aside from a terrible August he was pretty solid last season. His FIP and ERA were pretty close at 3.55 and 3.35. Add in the fact that he has posted career lows in walk rates the past two seasons and you have a pitcher that is significantly undervalued.
Mike Fiers (224 ADP)- He was pretty awesome when he was given a spot in the rotation late last season. He did outperform his FIP by .86 and also posted a ridiculous .288 BABIP which means he will certainly be due for some regression this season. Even after you factor in some regression, he should be an absolute steal if he is able to sustain a K/9 rate between 8.5-9.0 even if the ERA and WHIP regress.
Matt Shoemaker (221 ADP)- He really came out of nowhere last season and put up some insane numbers. Before 2014 he previously had problems with his command and strikeout rate but managed to drastically improve both of those rates last season. Some regression will likely occur, but I don't think it will be as drastic as most sites are projecting especially if you consider how close his FIP 3.26 and ERA 3.04 where in 2014.
Brandon McCarthy (231 ADP)- Another guy who is likely being heavily discounted because of the injury risk that is associated with him. Like Kazmir, I plan to target him because the potential reward is much greater than the risk. Personally, I buy into the changes that he made while with the Yankees last season. I remember reading last summer that the dumb arse coaches in Arizona discouraged him from throwing his cutter and as soon as he landed with the Yankees he went back to throwing it. In his 14 starts with the Yankees he was 7-5 and posted a 3.22 FIP, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 8.17 K/9. I expect him to post an ERA around 3.20-3.40, provide a solid K rate, provide 10+ wins.
Here are a few that I plan to target
Scott Kazmir (213 ADP)- Injury will always be a risk but given how late he is going I think drafting him is well worth the risk. Aside from a terrible August he was pretty solid last season. His FIP and ERA were pretty close at 3.55 and 3.35. Add in the fact that he has posted career lows in walk rates the past two seasons and you have a pitcher that is significantly undervalued.
Mike Fiers (224 ADP)- He was pretty awesome when he was given a spot in the rotation late last season. He did outperform his FIP by .86 and also posted a ridiculous .288 BABIP which means he will certainly be due for some regression this season. Even after you factor in some regression, he should be an absolute steal if he is able to sustain a K/9 rate between 8.5-9.0 even if the ERA and WHIP regress.
Matt Shoemaker (221 ADP)- He really came out of nowhere last season and put up some insane numbers. Before 2014 he previously had problems with his command and strikeout rate but managed to drastically improve both of those rates last season. Some regression will likely occur, but I don't think it will be as drastic as most sites are projecting especially if you consider how close his FIP 3.26 and ERA 3.04 where in 2014.
Brandon McCarthy (231 ADP)- Another guy who is likely being heavily discounted because of the injury risk that is associated with him. Like Kazmir, I plan to target him because the potential reward is much greater than the risk. Personally, I buy into the changes that he made while with the Yankees last season. I remember reading last summer that the dumb arse coaches in Arizona discouraged him from throwing his cutter and as soon as he landed with the Yankees he went back to throwing it. In his 14 starts with the Yankees he was 7-5 and posted a 3.22 FIP, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 8.17 K/9. I expect him to post an ERA around 3.20-3.40, provide a solid K rate, provide 10+ wins.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:02 am to Cherokee Chinstrap
Jake Odorizzi- SP2 or SP3
Drew Hutchison- 3.91 FIP with 1 K per IP. High upside
Tajuan Walker
Jesse Hahn
Carlos Rodon
Drew Pomeranz
Drew Hutchison- 3.91 FIP with 1 K per IP. High upside
Tajuan Walker
Jesse Hahn
Carlos Rodon
Drew Pomeranz
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:07 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Jake Odorizzi- SP2 or SP3
Drew Hutchison- 3.91 FIP with 1 K per IP. High upside
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:30 am to Cherokee Chinstrap
I'm pretty big on Hutchinson. Own Fiers and McCarthy. I like what Jake Peavy did with the Giants after he was traded.
Nathan Eovaldi has been working on a splitter. Looks pretty nasty.
Nathan Eovaldi has been working on a splitter. Looks pretty nasty.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:35 am to papz
quote:
Nathan Eovaldi has been working on a splitter. Looks pretty nasty.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:41 am to Cherokee Chinstrap
I've picked up Kazmir, Fiers, and Shoemaker so far this offseason.
And Peavy.
Also Henderson Alvarez, although he can be brutal if you use K/9.
And Peavy.
Also Henderson Alvarez, although he can be brutal if you use K/9.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:44 am to papz
McCarthy played really well once he moved to NYY
Looking for Eovaldi to make that same jump
Looking for Eovaldi to make that same jump
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:49 am to Cherokee Chinstrap
If Alex Meyer is still there towards the end I'd grab him and take a shot. I'm big on him this year
Posted on 3/13/15 at 12:14 pm to Cherokee Chinstrap
I like all of those guys in the OP. I pretty much agree with everyone listed in this thread. However, I don't think Meyer will get much time in the show this year. If he does, then I bet he comes out of the pen.
Fiers is one of my favorites of that tier, but I like a ton of guys.
Fiers is one of my favorites of that tier, but I like a ton of guys.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 12:18 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
like all of those guys in the OP. I pretty much agree with everyone listed in this thread
Same.. Which tells me.. WAIT ON STARTING PITCHING
Posted on 3/13/15 at 12:43 pm to Honkus
Not necessarily. There are still considerable differences in floor, ceiling, K/9, etc.
If we are drafting in Votto, then an ace could be a good value compared to an SP2 or SP3. For example, I would rather have Kluber at $26 than Alex Cobb (borderline ace) at $22 or Gio Gonzalez at $15. That is the beauty of an auction.
However, I am way more prepared and knowledgeable than ever for the draft, so I have a bunch of under $5 guys ready. Of course, most of them are no secret, but they are not all Carlos Carrasco obvious either.
If we are drafting in Votto, then an ace could be a good value compared to an SP2 or SP3. For example, I would rather have Kluber at $26 than Alex Cobb (borderline ace) at $22 or Gio Gonzalez at $15. That is the beauty of an auction.
However, I am way more prepared and knowledgeable than ever for the draft, so I have a bunch of under $5 guys ready. Of course, most of them are no secret, but they are not all Carlos Carrasco obvious either.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 1:06 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
I would rather have Kluber at $26 than Alex Cobb (borderline ace) at $22
I'd rather Cobb in that scenario. I think he drops the "borderline" this season
Posted on 3/13/15 at 1:12 pm to TTownTiger
With just a 4 dollar difference, I'd take Kluber all day. That said, I'm not spending 26 dollars on a pitcher... hell not even 22.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 3:12 pm to Lester Earl
I am on the Rodon train as well. The dude has some seriously filthy stuff, especially his slider. I really hope he doesn't spend the entire season in the bullpen like Sale did as a rookie, but even if he does he will still be fun to watch.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 3:18 pm to papz
I knew you would come in saying that Jose Quintana is the most you would spend.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 3:21 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
On that note, I will be putting Kluber on the block first with my pick. Bryant second. Be prepared to spend some money!
This post was edited on 3/13/15 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:13 pm to Cherokee Chinstrap
I was watching a ken williams interview and he was giddy when Rodon was brought up. He gonna start in the rotation if you ask me
Eovaldi ia the guy with the stuff to be the next Richards or kluber.
I'll throw shane Greene out there
Eovaldi ia the guy with the stuff to be the next Richards or kluber.
I'll throw shane Greene out there
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:53 pm to GynoSandberg
Rodon sounds MLB ready, but I think I will let someone else take the gamble.
Yeah, Eovaldi is not far away from turning the corner. Same With Shane Greene, but lower ceiling. I think I like 70 pitchers this year.
Yeah, Eovaldi is not far away from turning the corner. Same With Shane Greene, but lower ceiling. I think I like 70 pitchers this year.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 6:00 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
Apparently our very own Bmac really likes Greene.
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