re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

quote:

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what about this

-make the initial pick
-host removes 1/3 of the choices
-then they mix up and randomize the remaining 2 choices. what are the odds you pick the car or goat?

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Again this is a completely different game. I would say that your odds are 1/3 in this scenario because the car will remain 2/3 of the time. Since it has been randomized after that, and assuming the car is there you have 1/2 chance of winning. 1/2*2/3= 1/3

The point of the problem is that the car never changes doors. Knowing that, the door you initially choose will never have more than a 1/3 chance.