I'm with you. I've taken money off the table and shifted some things around. I've been doing this for over a year. I miss upside certainly, but also miss the dramatic downward slide that is inevitable. I miss it, and have cash left to buy bargains as near the bottom as I can manage. My near the top and near the bottom is no where near perfect, but it has served me well with respect to preserving my gains. Albeit smaller gains than if I could predict things perfectly, but gains.

2008-2009 didn't trouble my net worth much as it was easy to see that one coming a mile away. I remember talking to my bank and asking questions. They were just shaking their heads at what was going on. I had bought some vacation type real estate in Florida and was considering buying more. I asked the realtor (as if they understand anything except their commission) when it was going to end. Their answer was never. The conversation with the bank was because of some suspicions I had. The realtors answer scared the crap out of me.

This one is really more tricky. Many things haven't reacted as conventional wisdom would indicate they should react after the gubmit capital infusion. It's not been a normal recovery, or whatever it is that were experiencing. Certain commodity prices acted opposite as they should have. Also some equities. I'm a simple guy, so this one has me confused.

With respect to energy we won't know the demand side of the equation for a while. At least not the true demand side of the equation as we usually learn these things in arrears.

Deflation will likely prop up my precious metals. I'm not sure deflation is where were headed though. If you asked me 6 years ago, I would have thought we'd have had inflation by now. And I think we have at the grocery store and places that matter to average folks, but not statistical inflation as defined by those smarter than I, or those (gubmit) with an agenda. Mostly I would have been wrong, notwithstanding what a decent dry aged rib eye costs currently compared to what it cost not that long ago. But I'm not arguing with bankers, fixed income traders and government bureaucrats, I'm trying to preserve and grow my capital.

Anyway, I've hedged the dollar with some conservative currency plays. I'm considering going long oil at some point, but not quite sure when. I'm in a lot of cash, and honestly can't decide what to put it in, or when to put it in.