re: Week 7 NBA and NCCAB Betting Thread...... Let's make some CASH!!!

quote:

---

dg, tell me your thoughts on OKC. I know they are pretty hot with Westbrook and KD back, I just think GS are hot too. Is it a mismatch I am missing?

Also, what are your thoughts on buying points? With basketball, more so CBB, I find myself always buying down halves, sometimes a full point?

---

I heavily weigh recent stats when capping NBA games, it is just what works best for me and I have several reasons why I think its a good idea. The NBA season is a grind and these teams are constantly having injuries, which means the lineups are constantly changing. Teams also get hot and cold in waves as team chemistry develops. As for this specific matchup OKC has played as well anyone inside the last week. Durant getting back comfortable has really spread the floor for them and they are getting easy shots at a high rate, they are also playing very well defensively. Golden State has played a couple of tough opponents in the last week and hasn't been as strong defending. Their opponent 2P% has been in the lower half of the league the last 3 games. The biggest reason I like OKC tonight is how well OKC has defended the perimeter since Durant has been back. We all know the Three point game is Golden States bread and butter and since KD has returned the Thunder's Opponent 3P% is 26%, easily the best in the league.

As far as buying points, I am a victim of probably doing it a little too often. The key numbers I try to get are 3 and 6.5. 3 for obvious reasons, one possession and 6.5 seems to be the number that keeps you safe as an underdog from getting burned on late game free throws and vice versa.


For the LSU matchup I just think LSU will be too efficient inside much like they were against WVU for a UAB team that doesn't score well.