re: LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)

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They played South Carolina, who already has 4 conference losses. Georgia would have at least 2 losses in this scenario. I wouldn't assume Auburn is a certainty in a 5 way tiebreaker.

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Currently:

Georgia and South Carolina (Auburn): 6-5 with remaining games vs. Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida twice. They should combine to win at least three (UT and UFx2) and probably four (assuming UGa beats UK) of those five. Final projected combined record of 9-7 or 10-6

Florida and Kentucky (LSU): 4-6 with remaining games vs. Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia twice. Realistically, they cannot win more than four of those six (neither of them is beating Georgia). Final projected combined record of 8-8 or worse.

Florida and Tennessee (Alabama): 2-7 with remaining games vs. Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt twice, South Carolina twice. Their best hope is to win four or five of those seven (loss to Georgia and at least one more). Final projected combined record of 6-10 or 7-9.

Ole Miss and MSU both have Vanderbilt anchoring them down with a projected 0-8 record, while MSU has Kentucky and Ole Miss has Tennessee to try to counterbalance that. No chance for either of these teams to win on this tiebreaker.

If it gets down to this tiebreaker, Auburn is pretty much a lock. Only LSU has any kind of hope to match them (which would require a major upset by Florida or Kentucky), and even we almost certainly can't do better than them (which would require two major upsets). So, even in what is essentially the worst case for Auburn, it still becomes a two-way tie between Auburn and LSU, which Auburn wins on head to head.