re: OFFICIAL Week 10 CFB bet thread™

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I know Thursday night home dogs and all but FSU can't beat Louisville by 4 points?

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My issue is that I'm not high on FSU at all. They are overrated and I'm pretty sure they've only covered once this season and they barely covered it (@ home vs Wake).

If you like Ville, I think the value is all about sucked out. If you are backing Louisville @ +3, you essentially think they are going to win the game.

The sharps were on Louisville @ +6, 6.5, +7 for large dollar amounts. The public is on FSU in general, and a some sharp money was bought back on FSU when the number was in the 3 or 3.5 range.

I think the sharpest play would've been grabbing this game when it was 7 or 6 points - obviously that opportunity is gone. I will say that the difference between 3.5 and 6 points isn't that big of a deal in college football.

The intangibles seem fairly even - Ville's homefield will be raucous, but FSU knows this game is just about all that stands between them and the CFB playoff. FSU should be out to prove the doubters wrong as well.

I think both defenses will struggle in this game. FSU's defense is very average and Petrino has had 2 weeks to prepare. UL just got their #1 WR back from injury, too. On offense, Jameis is still an unstoppable force when the chips are down. I've stated previously that this will be by far Louisville's toughest test for their highly-ranked D.

My play is over the total (51).