re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

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Of all the countries listed in the link you gave Russia is rated the 4th "riskiest" country in the world as determined by CDS.

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Irrelevant.

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Only Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine are shown with a higher sovereign debt risk. Everyone knows those countries are in complete chaos financially so being only slightly less risky than them is still very risky.

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Russia is not "only slightly less risky" - at least not according to the actual global CDS trading markets. Specifically (as of 11-24-14):

Argentina is 4.26 times more likely to default this year.

Venezuela is 3.9 times more likely to default this year.

Ukraine is 3.38 times more likely to default this year.

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So I'm not sure how my opinion of Russia's financial condition disagrees all that much from what the CDS is indicating.

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It differs a great deal. What part of it don't you understand? You said 100% chance of Russia defaulting in the next 12 months (you started at 6 months). The global CDS markets - which are traded by some of the most connected international financial institutions in the world - price that exact same risk at 4.2% chance. In other words, you are saying this event of default is almost 24 TIMES AS LIKELY to happen as what the trading markets are saying.

I'm just curious what extra information you have that, say, Goldman Sachs or BNP Paribas does not have?

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I have no interest in profiting from Russia's situation so I can't help you there.

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Why not? I see you on the money board all the time and you seem interested in profiting in financial markets. How often are your personal predictions this out of phase with trading markets?