re: Predict: Will Aaron Rodgers Ever Win Another Super Bowl?

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I agree with this. If you look at the super bowl champions since 1999, only two teams had a QB making elite QB money, both of them Mannings. Peyton in 2006 and Eli in 2011. Drew was still on his first, lower salary contract in 2009, Brady did not get his big payday until after their last championship, and Rodgers was not yet making elite money in 2010. Of course, Roethlisberger still doesn't make elite money, I don't think, but he certainly did not through 2008. Wilson makes pennies compared to these guys.

The elite QB contract is a massive obstacle to overcome and requires a great deal of luck and great drafts to do it.

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Now this is probably a very valid argument. I think this may highlight the circular logic of the NFL. I think we can safely designate four QBs as objectively elite the past 5 or 10 years (Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers). The argument I hear, and don't disagree with in theory, is that you need a great QB to win a Super Bowl; however, we often determine greatness by winning a SB. Therefore, if we typically place a disproportionate weight for greatness on winning a Super Bowl then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that you need a great QB to win the Super Bowl.