re: WWYD as Wisconsin Coach?

quote:

---

LSU being up 4 and LSU being up 7 is very different

---

It doubles your chances of winning. But in that level of desperation, that isn't that much. 7% chance of scoring down 7 is better than 3% chance of scoring down 4. So if you can find an advantage that can double your chances of scoring a TD, its worth conceding 3 points. I think a compressed field and kickoff return is such an advantage.

But yes, you are absolutely right that it needs to be factored in. My issue is that I think people over-estimate it because there is such a subconscious horror with giving the ball up inside your own 10 that people don't analyze the relevance of it to the specific situation.