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re: Statistics: Why LSU will beat Wisconsin: A response to Wisc Trolls

Posted on 8/22/14 at 2:10 am to
Posted by Johnkester59
Minneapolis
Member since Apr 2014
88 posts
Posted on 8/22/14 at 2:10 am to
quote:

And you would be shocked by a 7+ point LSU victory? because you loss by less than that to the other 3 teams?
Come on.


No I would be shocked because I know my team. We have a Heisman Trophy favorite at our most important position and NFL talent at every other position except QB (which is kind of a big flaw I will admit). This is not an unfamiliar position for UW to be in, playing against a team with far more 'talent'. The history does play a role in that. Every good team we have played recently has had a similar take on how they are going to have too much speed and athleticism for us to handle. Everyone of those teams has come out the backend and said, 'wow we underestimated the skill level of those guys, that was a dog fight we could have easily lost (or did lose).' Added on to that is the hope that Coach Anderson has brought a better mentality (and skill level) to the late game than Bert did and we won't have the inexcusable breakdowns that have cost us those games in the past. UW just doesn't get blown out, partly because of the system we run and also partly because of the mental toughness of our players.

If any team is going to do it, it will probably be LSU but I just don't see it happening. It is not as if LSU was some unbeatable juggernaut last year and you lost significant stars from that team at some very important positions. I realize you are LSU and there are more 5* guys just waiting their turn, but its the first game of the season under some very bright lights and freshmen tend to make some mistakes in those kinds of situations. I think it is a miscalculation to expect them to be in top from from the get go in their very first CFB game. I think (hope) that UW will be able to capitalize on those mistakes when they happen, and thus the game will be close.
Posted by Johnkester59
Minneapolis
Member since Apr 2014
88 posts
Posted on 8/22/14 at 2:43 am to
Just to add some thoughts to the last post; The turnover on D is not as concerning as it would normally be. We are still in the midst of a transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new coordinator Dave Aranda. Last year with the completely wrong personal to run what he wanted UW still finished with a top ten defense nationally. This year he has many more pieces that fit his scheme so the turnover may work out better than it should in theory and expectations are pretty high for the new look. In addition the D is built around pre-snap motion and heavy blitzing from all over the field. That may cause some problems for whichever young QB LSU starts and provide UW with some of the breaks we need.

On the other side of the ball, the one scheme that gave LSU trouble last year were power run attacks that came right at them and neutralized some of the speed advantage. UW is the poster child for that kind of O. We are not going to be running sideline to sideline all that often against your D, saving on the jet sweep which may be scratched early if LSU is prepared for it (which I would guess they will).
Posted by WAR TIGER
Death Valley
Member since Oct 2005
4091 posts
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:08 pm to
Gordon is a Heisman Candidate......
But how did he get his yards last year???

Against the cupcakes.

The teams I would look to for having a decent to good defense on Wisconsin's schedule last year are:
OHIO STATE, IOWA, PENN ST & MINNESOTA.

Here are the rather pedestrian results by Gordon in those games:
OHIO STATE 79 yards 0 TD's
PENN STATE 91 yards 0 TD's
IOWA 68 yards 0 TD's
MINNESOTA 75 yards 0 TD's

But, he shredded Umass, Tenn Tech, Arizona St, Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana.

LSU would have a Heisman candidate every year too!! But we just play many more top-ranked teams and much, much better defenses.

Gordon is in a perfect program and conference to really grind out some great games this coming season. But in games against decent to good defenses, he was sub-par to decent.

I will say this......if he shreds LSU and delivers victory to the Badgers, he will be the shoe-in for Heisman.

But, I think our D will surprise you. Ask Iowa.
In fact, your Heisman candidate got 68 yards against Iowa. Our back got 217 yards against the same team in the bowl game.

Do these statistics not make you nervous? Less confident? They should
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