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re: Over the next 3 months, will the $ strengthening or weakeing against the £?
Posted on 7/15/14 at 4:30 pm to PenguinNinja
Posted on 7/15/14 at 4:30 pm to PenguinNinja
Over 3 months, I see the EUR/USD being supported just by basis technicals right now. Right now 3-month EUR/USD XCC basis is about 10 2/3 basis points, which means you can get paid that much by buying euro's and selling them back in 3 months. Your standard French/German 3-month bills are giving you another basis point so you've got an all-in trade of 11-12 basis points right now for playing the XXC basis. On the flip side USD GC repo is only giving you 10 basis points even after a lot of Treasury bill supply settling today. That trade alone is enough to support the euro at the minimum, not to mention the forward points are favorable.
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