quote:
So non RB in 1st round to me would be Payton, Graham, CJ,
then the other as Brees/Rodgers or which ever is your favorite in the tier 1b of the WR.

less than 50% chance of success...busts who were barely worth rostering

quote:
1 1.01 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2 1.03 Doug Martin RB TB-was crao before being injured
3 1.05 Jamaal Charles RB KC
4 1.05 Arian Foster RB HOU
5 1.05 C.J. Spiller RB BUF-crappy all year
6 1.06 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
8 1.08 Trent Richardson RB-crap all year
9 1.08 Ray Rice RB BAL-crap
10 1.11 Alfred Morris RB WAS-crap
11 1.12 Matt Forte RB CHI
12 2.03 Steven Jackson RB-crap ATL

Injuries were the only reason all these weren't BOLD

quote:
1 1.09 Calvin Johnson WR DET
2 2.02 Dez Bryant WR DAL
3 2.06 A.J. Green WR CIN
4 2.10 Julio Jones WR ATL
5 2.12 Brandon Marshall WR
6 3.02 Demaryius Thomas WR
7 3.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR
8 3.07 Andre Johnson WR HOU
9 3.08 Randall Cobb WR GB
10 3.11 Roddy White WR ATL
11 4.01 Victor Cruz WR NYG
12 4.02 Vincent Jackson WR TB

Only an injury to rodgers kept the top 3 from being the top 3

quote:
1 2.07 Drew Brees QB
2 3.01 Aaron Rodgers QB
3 3.08 Peyton Manning QB

70% chance success at TE(top 10 who finished in top 10)

quote:
1 2.11 Jimmy Graham TE NO
2 4.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
3 5.08 Vernon Davis TE SF
4 5.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
5 6.06 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
6 7.04 Jermichael Finley TE GB
7 8.02 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
8 8.05 Antonio Gates TE SD
9 8.11 Jared Cook TE STL
10 9.05 Greg Olsen TE CAR

This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:52 pm

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Posted by petar

Miami

Member since May 2009

5989 posts

Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:57 pm to Iona Fan Man

quote:
historically a 1st round RB is a 50%/50% chance of success, while elite WRs and QBs are 80%

Feel that. 1st rd wr/QB is certainly a safer choice, but non bust 1st round RB is worth the risk especially if that rb has a good handcuff that isn't overvalued to assuage the injury concern at rb.

I wouldn't use this statistic to imply that you should not choose a rb over a qb/wr. its slightly skewed IMO as predicting the top 2 or 3 is a lot less risky as predicting 4-10.

Granted I typically avoid risk rbs as well

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