Why?
i would still go with this plan for the most part basically a best player available skewed toward RB plan minus the few rb that I have question marks about.
i would think a 1st rd should look like 8 rbs, 1 qb, 1 wr, 1 te, and one other.

So non RB in 1st round to me would be Payton, Graham, CJ,
then the other as Brees/Rodgers or which ever is your favorite in the tier 1b of the WR.

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Posted by Boomshockalocka

Member since Feb 2004

59715 posts

Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:47 pm to petar

1st round running backs have a high bust rate. Kashonly repost that post you made a few days ago that shows how many top rated RBs busted last year. IMO you should take BPA rd 1. If you pick late first rd, BPA will usually be the first or 2nd best WR, or best QB, not the 6th best RB.

edit: Picks in rds 6-9 are more important than 1st rd picks, that's where there are guys to be had who outproduce 1st and 2nd rd picks every year.

This post was edited on 7/9/14 at 12:49 pm

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Posted by Iona Fan Man

Member since Jan 2006

27462 posts

Posted on 7/9/14 at 12:50 pm to petar

quote:
So non RB in 1st round to me would be Payton, Graham, CJ,
then the other as Brees/Rodgers or which ever is your favorite in the tier 1b of the WR.

less than 50% chance of success...busts who were barely worth rostering

quote:
1 1.01 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2 1.03 Doug Martin RB TB-was crao before being injured
3 1.05 Jamaal Charles RB KC
4 1.05 Arian Foster RB HOU
5 1.05 C.J. Spiller RB BUF-crappy all year
6 1.06 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
8 1.08 Trent Richardson RB-crap all year
9 1.08 Ray Rice RB BAL-crap
10 1.11 Alfred Morris RB WAS-crap
11 1.12 Matt Forte RB CHI
12 2.03 Steven Jackson RB-crap ATL

Injuries were the only reason all these weren't BOLD

quote:
1 1.09 Calvin Johnson WR DET
2 2.02 Dez Bryant WR DAL
3 2.06 A.J. Green WR CIN
4 2.10 Julio Jones WR ATL
5 2.12 Brandon Marshall WR
6 3.02 Demaryius Thomas WR
7 3.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR
8 3.07 Andre Johnson WR HOU
9 3.08 Randall Cobb WR GB
10 3.11 Roddy White WR ATL
11 4.01 Victor Cruz WR NYG
12 4.02 Vincent Jackson WR TB

Only an injury to rodgers kept the top 3 from being the top 3

quote:
1 2.07 Drew Brees QB
2 3.01 Aaron Rodgers QB
3 3.08 Peyton Manning QB

70% chance success at TE(top 10 who finished in top 10)

quote:
1 2.11 Jimmy Graham TE NO
2 4.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
3 5.08 Vernon Davis TE SF
4 5.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
5 6.06 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
6 7.04 Jermichael Finley TE GB
7 8.02 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
8 8.05 Antonio Gates TE SD
9 8.11 Jared Cook TE STL
10 9.05 Greg Olsen TE CAR