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re: Obama Asks For $500 Million To Equip Syrian Rebels

Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:22 am to
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:22 am to
The Baathists in Syria are Shia; the Baathists in Iraq are Sunni. The truth is that ISIL and Assad haven't been fighting in recent months until ISIL invaded Iraq. The reason: Assad knows that the FSA is the only possible group getting western, Saudi, and Turkish aid. So he's been bombing them while letting ISIL get stronger.

This is in a sense a Sunni/Shia proxy more. But it's more complicated than that. ISIL is also the enemy of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Kurds, and generally all other Sunni (i.e., FSA) who don't want to live in theocratic tyranny.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:23 am to
quote:

Here you can find information of the theater of war.


I appreciate the link. As a professional Soldier (thirty years and counting), I understand topography. It still does not explain what we are attempting to achieve. Nor why we need to achieve it.

If the rationale for the Iraqi War was murky at best (something I would agree with), then this is (in my opinion) much, much worse. We have no vital, national interest in this conflict. And it is not limited to one nation. It is a regional conflict along sectarian lines with many outside actors (Iran and Saudi Arabia) apparently involved. This is not our area of expertise (Islamic culture and religion). Let them sort it out.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:24 am to
quote:

This is in a sense a Sunni/Shia proxy war.


Thanks. So, why do we need to be involved? We are going to get trapped between these two expressions of Islamic religion. For what purpose? To what end? We are not bringing stability.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:25 am to
quote:

If the rationale for the Iraqi War was murky at best (something I would agree with), then this is (in my opinion) much, much worse. We have no vital, national interest in this conflict.


I would flip these. We have an obvious interest in killing terrorists (ISIL) and stability in the ME. Invading Iraq in my view was the biggest foreign policy blunder since Vietnam.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27845 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:25 am to
quote:

ISIL is also the enemy of Saudi Arabia,

Not correct
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:27 am to
There are many more expressions of Islam than the terms "Sunni" and "Shia" cover.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:28 am to
quote:

I would flip these. We have an obvious interest in killing terrorists (ISIL) and stability in the ME. Invading Iraq in my view was the biggest foreign policy blunder since Vietnam.


Not trying to be obtuse or difficult, but since when has ISIL been determined to be a "terrorist" organization in the classic, international sense? What acts of terrorism have they committed? They seem (to me) to be more along the lines of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Brutal Islamists, but they have not committed any acts of terror.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:28 am to
Really? I guess you didn't know that one of ISIL's goals is to kill the Saudi royal family.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:28 am to
quote:

There are many more expressions of Islam than the terms "Sunni" and "Shia" cover.


I am well aware of that. But they are the two largest sects. And they are at the center of this regional conflict.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:30 am to
Yeah, well, I think you're trying to reduce things to Shia v Sunni in order to make your point stronger. I think there's truth to what you say, regarding the US being better off staying out, but it's just not true that we can't distinguish between the FSA and ISIL...they certainly know the difference themselves!
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
64698 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:32 am to
Maybe its a way to fund the contra's?
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:32 am to
Yeah that's fair; I'm assuming with most FP analysts I've heard that any territory they control will be a breeding ground for international terrorism.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27845 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:34 am to
Saudi sends more foreign fighters to Isis than any other country. I highly doubt the royal family is concerned.




Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
110154 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:35 am to
Yeah, that worked out so well with the Afghanis.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:36 am to
quote:

Yeah, well, I think you're trying to reduce things to Shia v Sunni in order to make your point stronger. I think there's truth to what you say, regarding the US being better off staying out, but it's just not true that we can't distinguish between the FSA and ISIL...they certainly know the difference themselves!


Exactly. I think this is (in fact) a state sponsored regional conflict between Iran and (possibly) Saudi Arabia. And it is (mostly) rooted in the expression and practice of
Sunnism and Shiasm.

But I will admit, I could never untangle all of the intrigue and deceit. We are very binary and simple minded compared to our Middle Eastern counterparts.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:40 am to
quote:

Saudi sends more foreign fighters to Isis than any other country. I highly doubt the royal family is concerned.


Europe has "sent" many fighters to ISIL...

Obviously the Saudi family is concerned about a group that wants to topple their government and institute "true Islam". So is Jordan, Turkey, Kuwait. Just google it if you don't believe me.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27845 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:45 am to
It's just flat out wrong. Where do you think isil gets the majority of their support if not from Saudi?
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:47 am to
quote:

Where do you think isil gets the majority of their support if not from Saudi?


It has been my (simplistic) understanding that Saudi Arabia makes a practice of "exporting" their malcontents to ensure stability in their kingdom. My understanding.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:51 am to
Do you not understand the difference between what an individual does and government policy? I thought you were a conservative.
Posted by Bayou Sam
Istanbul
Member since Aug 2009
5921 posts
Posted on 6/27/14 at 8:51 am to
That's true, but this situation is different. ISIL presents a direct threat to Saudi stability.
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