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re: Question RE: ISIS
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:29 am to TrueTiger
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:29 am to TrueTiger
I put this in another thread but I'll just repost it. This is my understanding.
You got the Sunni who were once in control of Iraq but then pushed out and are now trying to overthrow both the governments in Syria and Iraq and are backed by Saudi Arabia. The U.S. supports them in Syria, but not in Iraq.
You got the Shia who are trying to hold onto power in Syria and Iraq and they also dominate Iran.
You got the Kurds who have a semi-autonomous region in parts of Iraq but deep down they really want their own country which would include parts of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Turkey. Sensing weakness in Iraq, they are moving to consolidate territory while the Shia's and Sunni's are fighting.
You got the U.S. who is backing the Sunni's in Syria but backing the Shia in Iraq and have a solid relationship with the Kurds as well. To complicate matters they are feuding with the Shia's in Iran but are allies with the Sunni's in Saudi Arabia. To make things even more complicated, they overthrew the Sunni's in Iraq and installed the Shia which kickstarted this whole process.
You got Turkey who is for the most part a force of stability and moderation in the region. However they are weary of the Kurds encroaching on their territory even though a part part of the population is Kurdish.
You got Iran who is an enemy of the U.S. and the Sunni's. However, they share goals with the U.S. in Iraq in keeping a Shia government in place but they are fighting the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in Syria who want to install a Sunni government.
You got Iraq which had a Sunni government that was overthrown by the US and replaced with a Shia government. However the Shia government is quickly losing control over of over 2/3's of the country to both the Sunni and Kurds.
You got the Sunni who were once in control of Iraq but then pushed out and are now trying to overthrow both the governments in Syria and Iraq and are backed by Saudi Arabia. The U.S. supports them in Syria, but not in Iraq.
You got the Shia who are trying to hold onto power in Syria and Iraq and they also dominate Iran.
You got the Kurds who have a semi-autonomous region in parts of Iraq but deep down they really want their own country which would include parts of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Turkey. Sensing weakness in Iraq, they are moving to consolidate territory while the Shia's and Sunni's are fighting.
You got the U.S. who is backing the Sunni's in Syria but backing the Shia in Iraq and have a solid relationship with the Kurds as well. To complicate matters they are feuding with the Shia's in Iran but are allies with the Sunni's in Saudi Arabia. To make things even more complicated, they overthrew the Sunni's in Iraq and installed the Shia which kickstarted this whole process.
You got Turkey who is for the most part a force of stability and moderation in the region. However they are weary of the Kurds encroaching on their territory even though a part part of the population is Kurdish.
You got Iran who is an enemy of the U.S. and the Sunni's. However, they share goals with the U.S. in Iraq in keeping a Shia government in place but they are fighting the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in Syria who want to install a Sunni government.
You got Iraq which had a Sunni government that was overthrown by the US and replaced with a Shia government. However the Shia government is quickly losing control over of over 2/3's of the country to both the Sunni and Kurds.
4
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:33 am to blowmeauburn
Clusterfrick comes to mind.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:34 am to blowmeauburn
Gotcha.
I guess the only thing to do now is nuke the whole place and start over.
I guess the only thing to do now is nuke the whole place and start over.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:48 am to blowmeauburn
There are 5 main groups in the Middle East: Israelis (Jews), Kurds, Sunnis (Arabs), shiites (Persians), and Turks.
Rule #1: Everyone hates everyone.
In all of the nations of the Middle East, there are Sunni and Shiite populations, generally with one in the majority and one in the minority. In Middle East Democracies, the majority is in charge. In Military Dictatorships, the minority is in charge. The Kurds have no countries where they are in the majority. Their territory is in Eastern Syria and Turkey, Northern Iraq, and North-Western Iran. They are a mostly peaceful people and their regions of those countries are generally very business friendly and stable when they're not getting gas attacked by one of the other 3 Muslim groups.
The main Sunni powers are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Dubai, Quatar, ect. Basically, your Arab states. In all of those Arab countries, a Sunni king rules over a nation that is generally majority or slightly minority Sunni.
The main Shiite run countries are Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, Syria, being a military dictatorship, has a majority Sunni population. Right now, they're Sunnis are rebelling against the Shiite government run by Assad.
The main Shiite paramilitary powers are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shiite militias in Iraq.
The main Sunni paramilitary powers are Al-Qaeda, The Taliban, ISIS, and Hamas.
In the middle East, you have several levels of hate:
Hate level 1: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for America
Hate Level 2: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for each other
Hate level 3: The hatred the Sunnis, Turks, and Shias have for the Kurds
Hate level 4: the level of hatred the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and Turks have for the Jews.
Basically, the different Sects won't work together to fight the U.S. most of the time. The will occasionally work together to fight each other. All of the other Muslim groups will work together to fight the Kurds, and all 4 Muslim groups (including Kurds) will work together to fight the Jews.
In the Middle East, the U.S. generally supports 4, often mutually exclusive, things: Democracy, the safety of U.S. citizens and trade, the safety of Israel, and the interests of Saudi Arabia. It is easy to see where these things can clash.
In Iraq, we supported democracy and the interests of American businesses, but in the process, we made Israel less safe by removing an Israeli ally and replacing it with a government that has close ties to an Israeli enemy (Iran). This also went against the interests of Saudi Arabia.
In Syria and Lybia, we were supporting democracy, but bankrolling Al Qaeda-aligned terrorist groups and going against our security/business interests. For Israel, the region is destabilized. Removing Qaddafi hurt them, but removing Assad may help or hurt them depending on what groups gain power in the end.
In Egypt, we sided with democracy, which Hurt business interests and Israel's security. The new military rule there goes against democracy, but helps to save Israel from potential war in the Sinai.
In Iran, we took no side. We abandoned democracy, Israel, our business interests, and the Saudis for no reason right as the current regime was on the verge of falling to a more sympathetic challenger.
Rule #1: Everyone hates everyone.
In all of the nations of the Middle East, there are Sunni and Shiite populations, generally with one in the majority and one in the minority. In Middle East Democracies, the majority is in charge. In Military Dictatorships, the minority is in charge. The Kurds have no countries where they are in the majority. Their territory is in Eastern Syria and Turkey, Northern Iraq, and North-Western Iran. They are a mostly peaceful people and their regions of those countries are generally very business friendly and stable when they're not getting gas attacked by one of the other 3 Muslim groups.
The main Sunni powers are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Dubai, Quatar, ect. Basically, your Arab states. In all of those Arab countries, a Sunni king rules over a nation that is generally majority or slightly minority Sunni.
The main Shiite run countries are Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, Syria, being a military dictatorship, has a majority Sunni population. Right now, they're Sunnis are rebelling against the Shiite government run by Assad.
The main Shiite paramilitary powers are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shiite militias in Iraq.
The main Sunni paramilitary powers are Al-Qaeda, The Taliban, ISIS, and Hamas.
In the middle East, you have several levels of hate:
Hate level 1: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for America
Hate Level 2: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for each other
Hate level 3: The hatred the Sunnis, Turks, and Shias have for the Kurds
Hate level 4: the level of hatred the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and Turks have for the Jews.
Basically, the different Sects won't work together to fight the U.S. most of the time. The will occasionally work together to fight each other. All of the other Muslim groups will work together to fight the Kurds, and all 4 Muslim groups (including Kurds) will work together to fight the Jews.
In the Middle East, the U.S. generally supports 4, often mutually exclusive, things: Democracy, the safety of U.S. citizens and trade, the safety of Israel, and the interests of Saudi Arabia. It is easy to see where these things can clash.
In Iraq, we supported democracy and the interests of American businesses, but in the process, we made Israel less safe by removing an Israeli ally and replacing it with a government that has close ties to an Israeli enemy (Iran). This also went against the interests of Saudi Arabia.
In Syria and Lybia, we were supporting democracy, but bankrolling Al Qaeda-aligned terrorist groups and going against our security/business interests. For Israel, the region is destabilized. Removing Qaddafi hurt them, but removing Assad may help or hurt them depending on what groups gain power in the end.
In Egypt, we sided with democracy, which Hurt business interests and Israel's security. The new military rule there goes against democracy, but helps to save Israel from potential war in the Sinai.
In Iran, we took no side. We abandoned democracy, Israel, our business interests, and the Saudis for no reason right as the current regime was on the verge of falling to a more sympathetic challenger.
This post was edited on 6/13/14 at 10:57 am
Posted on 6/13/14 at 11:20 am to blowmeauburn
quote:That makes my head hurt.
I put this in another thread but I'll just repost it. This is my understanding.
You got the Sunni who were once in control of Iraq but then pushed out and are now trying to overthrow both the governments in Syria and Iraq and are backed by Saudi Arabia. The U.S. supports them in Syria, but not in Iraq.
You got the Shia who are trying to hold onto power in Syria and Iraq and they also dominate Iran.
You got the Kurds who have a semi-autonomous region in parts of Iraq but deep down they really want their own country which would include parts of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Turkey. Sensing weakness in Iraq, they are moving to consolidate territory while the Shia's and Sunni's are fighting.
You got the U.S. who is backing the Sunni's in Syria but backing the Shia in Iraq and have a solid relationship with the Kurds as well. To complicate matters they are feuding with the Shia's in Iran but are allies with the Sunni's in Saudi Arabia. To make things even more complicated, they overthrew the Sunni's in Iraq and installed the Shia which kickstarted this whole process.
You got Turkey who is for the most part a force of stability and moderation in the region. However they are weary of the Kurds encroaching on their territory even though a part part of the population is Kurdish.
You got Iran who is an enemy of the U.S. and the Sunni's. However, they share goals with the U.S. in Iraq in keeping a Shia government in place but they are fighting the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in Syria who want to install a Sunni government.
You got Iraq which had a Sunni government that was overthrown by the US and replaced with a Shia government. However the Shia government is quickly losing control over of over 2/3's of the country to both the Sunni and Kurds.
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