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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:05 am to LSUJuice
quote:
OTS
KW
OTC
MDR
OTS - Out to Sea - refers to a system curving away from North American out into the Atlantic
KW - Kelvin Wave - an equatorial wave that is on a smaller scale than the MJO. Tends to increase convection as it propagates eastwards. This increased convection can help concentrate low level vorticity. When the MJO is weak, we tend to look to KW for signs of where genesis might occur.
OTC - probably a typo
MDR - main development region - refers to an area out in the Atlantic that typically sees the majority of the tropical development during an average season
ETA: MJO - Madden–Julian oscillation - similar to a KW but on a larger scale and it propagates eastward slower than a KW. It can have a pretty big influence on weather across North America, probably only behind ENSO. A lot of things can be tracked back to the Pacific in one way or another.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:10 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:08 am to LSUJuice
Well, tonight most models are trending west again, except GFS.. still waiting for the Euro.
CMC takes it to MS/AL, NAVGEM takes it to the carolinas, barely touching the coast then out to sea, HWRF goes to south florida, GFS is a fish.. but the way all of these models have swung back and forth (except HWRF), its just crazy. Personally I'm leaning more towards an east coast storm than a GOM storm.. but the only thing we can pretty much count on is that there will be a storm, in the bahamas, with ripe conditions for intensification.. anything after that is a tossup.
EDIT: 00Z HWRF is coming out now, so far its more north than before passing north of the DR rather than straight through it.. so we'll see.
CMC takes it to MS/AL, NAVGEM takes it to the carolinas, barely touching the coast then out to sea, HWRF goes to south florida, GFS is a fish.. but the way all of these models have swung back and forth (except HWRF), its just crazy. Personally I'm leaning more towards an east coast storm than a GOM storm.. but the only thing we can pretty much count on is that there will be a storm, in the bahamas, with ripe conditions for intensification.. anything after that is a tossup.
EDIT: 00Z HWRF is coming out now, so far its more north than before passing north of the DR rather than straight through it.. so we'll see.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:12 am
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