re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

There isn't much to comment on tonight. 96L is still a disorganized mess and looks like crap. The latest KW has been a bit slow with its eastward propagation but 96L might get a bump from it over the next 2 or 3 days.

The models have trended pretty hard to an OTS solution over the past 24 hours. However, the HWRF has been pretty steady with bringing the system into S. Florida:



Dr. Masters has a nice article on hurricane models
here. He has some analysis that shows that the HWRF model has been pretty good so far this season (it was recently updated):



In addition to the HWRF, the Euro EPS is still indicating that a Gulf threat should be consider as a possibility (about 1/5 of the members). In fact, the 12z Euro EPS is more supportive of the HWRF than the Euro operational. And by day 7, the Euro EPS is highlighting two distinct possibilities that are at odds with the Euro operational.