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Message
Posted on 8/21/14 at 9:58 am to Fun Bunch
did they ever find an LLC on this thing?
I hate looking a globs of thunderstorms without a center
I hate looking a globs of thunderstorms without a center
Posted on 8/21/14 at 10:30 am to gaetti15
This isn't Louisiana's year anyway.
2002 - Lili
2005 - Katrina & Rita
2008 - Gustav
2012 - Issac
2015 or 2016 - ???
Every 3 or 4 years since 2002 Louisiana has been hit by a substantial storm.
2002 - Lili
2005 - Katrina & Rita
2008 - Gustav
2012 - Issac
2015 or 2016 - ???
Every 3 or 4 years since 2002 Louisiana has been hit by a substantial storm.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:09 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
never was a threat to the GOM
Interesting take, what indicators were you looking at over the past few days to determine that the Day 7 500 mb would change slightly but enough to favor OTC? Climo certainly indicated that this could be a Gulf threat. The predicted ensemble mean 500 mb from a few days ago indicated that a track through the Gulf was an option.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:31 am to rds dc
quote:
could be a Gulf threat.
quote:
track through the Gulf was an option.
spoken like a true weatherman
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:34 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
spoken like a true weatherman
Until I find a crystal ball, I'm listening to the weathermen. They're right more than I am and that's enough for me.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 5:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
As of 3pm:
1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 10:29 pm to AverageJoe26
There isn't much to comment on tonight. 96L is still a disorganized mess and looks like crap. The latest KW has been a bit slow with its eastward propagation but 96L might get a bump from it over the next 2 or 3 days.
The models have trended pretty hard to an OTS solution over the past 24 hours. However, the HWRF has been pretty steady with bringing the system into S. Florida:
Dr. Masters has a nice article on hurricane models
here. He has some analysis that shows that the HWRF model has been pretty good so far this season (it was recently updated):
In addition to the HWRF, the Euro EPS is still indicating that a Gulf threat should be consider as a possibility (about 1/5 of the members). In fact, the 12z Euro EPS is more supportive of the HWRF than the Euro operational. And by day 7, the Euro EPS is highlighting two distinct possibilities that are at odds with the Euro operational.
The models have trended pretty hard to an OTS solution over the past 24 hours. However, the HWRF has been pretty steady with bringing the system into S. Florida:
Dr. Masters has a nice article on hurricane models
here. He has some analysis that shows that the HWRF model has been pretty good so far this season (it was recently updated):
In addition to the HWRF, the Euro EPS is still indicating that a Gulf threat should be consider as a possibility (about 1/5 of the members). In fact, the 12z Euro EPS is more supportive of the HWRF than the Euro operational. And by day 7, the Euro EPS is highlighting two distinct possibilities that are at odds with the Euro operational.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:50 pm to rds dc
Everyone should avoid looking at the 00z Canadian model
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:56 pm to rds dc
Is there a link that lists some of the acronyms you use?
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:57 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Is there a link that lists some of the acronyms you use?
I think Gueax posted something in the OP. What are you wondering about?
Posted on 8/21/14 at 11:59 pm to rds dc
OTS
KW
OTC
MDR
and MJO
KW
OTC
MDR
and MJO
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:02 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:05 am to LSUJuice
quote:
OTS
KW
OTC
MDR
OTS - Out to Sea - refers to a system curving away from North American out into the Atlantic
KW - Kelvin Wave - an equatorial wave that is on a smaller scale than the MJO. Tends to increase convection as it propagates eastwards. This increased convection can help concentrate low level vorticity. When the MJO is weak, we tend to look to KW for signs of where genesis might occur.
OTC - probably a typo
MDR - main development region - refers to an area out in the Atlantic that typically sees the majority of the tropical development during an average season
ETA: MJO - Madden–Julian oscillation - similar to a KW but on a larger scale and it propagates eastward slower than a KW. It can have a pretty big influence on weather across North America, probably only behind ENSO. A lot of things can be tracked back to the Pacific in one way or another.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:10 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:08 am to LSUJuice
Well, tonight most models are trending west again, except GFS.. still waiting for the Euro.
CMC takes it to MS/AL, NAVGEM takes it to the carolinas, barely touching the coast then out to sea, HWRF goes to south florida, GFS is a fish.. but the way all of these models have swung back and forth (except HWRF), its just crazy. Personally I'm leaning more towards an east coast storm than a GOM storm.. but the only thing we can pretty much count on is that there will be a storm, in the bahamas, with ripe conditions for intensification.. anything after that is a tossup.
EDIT: 00Z HWRF is coming out now, so far its more north than before passing north of the DR rather than straight through it.. so we'll see.
CMC takes it to MS/AL, NAVGEM takes it to the carolinas, barely touching the coast then out to sea, HWRF goes to south florida, GFS is a fish.. but the way all of these models have swung back and forth (except HWRF), its just crazy. Personally I'm leaning more towards an east coast storm than a GOM storm.. but the only thing we can pretty much count on is that there will be a storm, in the bahamas, with ripe conditions for intensification.. anything after that is a tossup.
EDIT: 00Z HWRF is coming out now, so far its more north than before passing north of the DR rather than straight through it.. so we'll see.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:12 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:12 am to rds dc
quote:
Everyone should avoid looking at the 00z Canadian model
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:18 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
It's odd, the Canadian has shown improvement with the mid-lat 500 mb since the upgrade but still blows in the tropics.
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