You do know all these draft player rankings and mocks are just speculation? All of the "expert draft analysis" have completely different lists. Some have Mett as a top 5 QB. Some have him a top 3 QB. Some have him between 7-10. Its all speculation.

Nobody is a "draft expert". If someone was, they wouldnt have nearly as many screw ups on their lists as they do, and most likely would be a GM of a team.

Mel Kiper compared JaMarcus to John Elway. He also said Ricky Stanzi would end up being the best QB in the 2011 draft, and that Mike Williams (USC) would be a Hall of Famer WR and was the best player in the 2005 draft. McShay said Blaine Gabbert would be a better pro player than Cam Newton and should be the #1 QB taken. He also had Mark Sanchez ahead of Stafford.

Point is, nobody knows who will do what at the next level. Its easy to predict that a guy like Andrew Luck is going to go #1 overall and be great at the next level. And that Clowney is an elite prospect. Those are givens. But when there isnt a clear cut top QB prospect, its tough. These "experts" opinion on Mett vary from a late 1st round to a 4th round pick. Thats not really telling me anything that I dont already know.

Its all a crapshoot. Am I saying I know more than these guys do? Nope. But they dont know that much more than some people that pay attention to this kinda stuff. Its pretty much a 50/50 guess.

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Posted by Bmath

Member since Aug 2010

18692 posts

Posted on 4/24/14 at 1:05 pm to KG5989

quote:

You do know all these draft player rankings and mocks are just speculation? All of the "expert draft analysis" have completely different lists. Some have Mett as a top 5 QB. Some have him a top 3 QB. Some have him between 7-10. Its all speculation.

Exactly. No one could ever accurately predict the draft. Every year guys go higher than projected, while others guys fall. Sometimes a team really wants to take a particular QB in the first round. If they aren't available they might pick up a tackle, and wait to see if value pick QB is available in another round.

Sometimes a guy might be the best overall rated guy at his position, but his style doesn't fit the scheme which allows him to get passed over for another guy.

Some teams aren't will to take risks on guys with various red flags.

Most drafts predictions try and look at team needs versus best player available, and then each pick falls into order as different guys come off the board. The draft is fluid, so a team comes in with an unexpected pick, and it could drastically change what other teams choose to do.

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Posted by Galactic Inquisitor

An Incredibly Distant Star

Member since Dec 2013

15322 posts

Posted on 4/24/14 at 1:17 pm to KG5989

quote:
Nobody is a "draft expert". If someone was, they wouldnt have nearly as many screw ups on their lists as they do, and most likely would be a GM of a team

John Hollinger is the perfect example of this, although the NBA equivalent.

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Posted by Galactic Inquisitor

An Incredibly Distant Star

Member since Dec 2013

15322 posts

Posted on 4/24/14 at 1:19 pm to KG5989

quote:
McShay said Blaine Gabbert would be a better pro player than Cam Newton and should be the #1 QB taken. He also had Mark Sanchez ahead of Stafford.

Seriously, McShay is terrible at evaluating talent and his history bears that out.

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Posted by SpookeyTiger

Williamsburg, MO

Member since Jan 2012

3536 posts

Posted on 4/25/14 at 7:19 am to KG5989

Right on KG. These "experts" simply get paid to guess like the rest of us.

They might study the draft and team needs but NOT ONE of the experts will be 100% correct or even close.

In fact their "misses" on draft projections give them additional air time after the draft to explain why they were wrong, blah, blah, blah.

Just look at all of the experts pre season polls each year or their projections of how the NFL will finish. Just a bunch of guessing but they get paid to guess.

I don't care where anyone gets drafted. If you produce in the NFL you will get paid.