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re: Timing the market
Posted on 3/16/14 at 9:37 pm to foshizzle
Posted on 3/16/14 at 9:37 pm to foshizzle
Can we not look to the past to make educated guesses about the future?
I could argue that the stock market is as much a psychological measure as it is an economical measure, and studying past behaviors could be helpful in determining future performance.
I could argue that the stock market is as much a psychological measure as it is an economical measure, and studying past behaviors could be helpful in determining future performance.
1
Posted on 3/16/14 at 11:24 pm to rintintin
quote:
Can we not look to the past to make educated guesses about the future?
Sure. But why do you believe this particular guess is an educated one? It seems pretty simplistic to me as technical analysis goes.
Why did you pick 1974 as the starting point? Does this method work in other periods also? And why 5% as opposed to some other number? What was the maximum loss during this time? Etc. etc.
Because one thing's for sure - some bright young analyst at Goldman Sachs or the like did this analysis a long time ago.
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