re: BOIL has become predictable

User - Please see below as further explanation regarding maximum loss and maximum profit potential on the calls spreads I was talking about.

Jan. 27 Expirations
.178 4.50 Call Buy
.092 5.00 Call Sell
.086 Cost ($860) Max Risk
Maximum Profit: .414 ($4,140)

Dec 26th Expirations
.149 4.50 Call Buy
.069 5.00 Call Sell
.080 ($800) Max Risk
Maximum Profit: .492 ($4,920)

This was as of this morning. I'm not pulling the trigger yet, but will be by no later than Mid-August.

The long call spread on Dec and Jan contracts seems to set up nicely, and I think a $4.50 strike price is decent. What I anticipate will happen is that whatever I sell the $5 calls for will deteriorate in value after I sell them, and I will buy back at a lower premium and keep the $4.50 long calls to maximize gain per trade.

If the trade goes all to heck, what I've done by selling the $5's is lower my entry cost and maximum loss.

I think I'm also going to sell uncovered puts and collect premium. Margin is full futures contract margin, premium collected and some other percentage. Still if I sold both Dec and Jan $3.50 puts I'd collect $1,800 per trade. It would tie up capital (margin), but when you take it as a percentage return on capital over the short length of trade it seem attractive to me. NG would need to get awfully close to $3 to cost me money, and I can buy these back at a loss at any stop loss I choose.