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re: AAPL getting crunched this morning, down almost 6%

Posted on 9/12/13 at 11:29 am to
Posted by Cracking
Northshore
Member since Aug 2006
3432 posts
Posted on 9/12/13 at 11:29 am to
quote:

BennyAndTheInkJets


Thank you for you response to my post. It may seem funny to thank you, but you have forgotten more about investing than I know...I am as novice as a novice gets in investing. But I like to look deeper than the superficial analysis on blogs and from critics, and your view does dig deeper, but looks more skeptical/bearish in nature than my optimistic view of AAPL.

quote:

AAPL has competition probably even greater than Android in China from Xiaomi. It will be a sales driver but not the levels they are used to seeing.


AAPL does have competition in China, but up to this point hasn't had access to the biggest market for mobile devices. This will naturally provide them an increase in sales and new AAPL fans. Also compatibility between devices will boost sales of muscic, apps, ipods, macs and whatever else they sell in the future. Seems like nothing but a huge step to me... maybe I'm wrong, but AAPL makes a good product and competes well.

quote:

While AAPL does have a head start on the fingerprint technology they don't have a water tight control over the patents. I also don't expect fingerprints to be the 'end all be all' for mobile to mobile security, simply because people use each other's cards all the time and sometimes its difficult to constantly add and take off certain user fingerprints from the database for bank accounts/cards.


Agreed, but they could become the most reliable means of using biometric security based on their head start and suppression of copycats. This could allow them to fix functionality problems and make it more user friendly. I know I said could twice, but nobody else is really introducing this option for secure online purchases yet.

quote:

That's the key here. Nobody is predicting their imminent demise, but their diminishing market share and potential pressure on margins does not oblige a $500 stock. Their debt has also has been horrible since issuance, massively underperforming similar credit and Treasuries, especially at the long end.


Lot's of people say "get out now" and "AAPL is over." I ignore them. AAPL is looking to expand market share with the above developments, and I think it's going to be very good for the sales. AAPL doesn't respond much to pressure on margins, they just keep doing what they do well, and I think they adapt enough to remain competitive.

My final thought is that AAPL will likely not stay lower than the 490 range based on Karl Ichan's investment. He is not going to lose that much money. What would kill AAPL's stock is if he or another big share holder dumped it and started to criticize. I don't think it hurts the company's sales and products, just the value of the stock.

This post was edited on 9/12/13 at 11:32 am
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5626 posts
Posted on 9/12/13 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

but you have forgotten more about investing than I know...

Ehhh....that's the beauty of finance, a person with all the wrong reasons can be right and a person with all the right reasons can be wrong. Prices can only go three ways: up, down, sideways. I wouldn't put too much stock in my "knowledge".
quote:

AAPL does have competition in China, but up to this point hasn't had access to the biggest market for mobile devices. This will naturally provide them an increase in sales and new AAPL fans. Also compatibility between devices will boost sales of muscic, apps, ipods, macs and whatever else they sell in the future. Seems like nothing but a huge step to me... maybe I'm wrong, but AAPL makes a good product and competes well.

Revenue is a given, its more the proportional share of revenue between companies that is most important. Remember that the end result we're talking about here is return on investment, not in an absolute but a relative sense. If investors believe they'll get a higher ROI from Samsung than Apple, they'll buy Samsung. It's a closed system, people win and people lose. The median income for the growing middle class in China still supports that lower priced manufacturers rather than Apple. Yes this is in theory, forward looking, and I could be completely incorrect. However, the current trends we're seeing in the composition of the new Chinese middle class is very leveraged. The old Chinese saving style from the 60's through the 90's isn't the trend we're seeing with the younger Chinese where they will lever up way beyond their means. Eventually this will catch up to them (as well as their regional debt but that's a completely different topic), and this over the long run supports a RNB99 priced smart phone that can do 80% of a RNB200 smartphone.
quote:

Agreed, but they could become the most reliable means of using biometric security based on their head start and suppression of copycats. This could allow them to fix functionality problems and make it more user friendly. I know I said could twice, but nobody else is really introducing this option for secure online purchases yet.

Understand the assumptions and I agree to a point. It's just kind of like my view on crypto currency, yea it will have a place but it won't be the primary medium of exchange similar to fingerprints won't be the primary method of security (although I believe fingerprints will have more of a place in security, I hope I didn't turn on the bat signal).
quote:

Lot's of people say "get out now" and "AAPL is over." I ignore them.

As you should, those people let emotion run decisions. That's very dangerous.
quote:

My final thought is that AAPL will likely not stay lower than the 490 range based on Karl Ichan's investment. He is not going to lose that much money. What would kill AAPL's stock is if he or another big share holder dumped it and started to criticize.

This is the key:

Finance is the beautiful profession of taking a simple concept and making it complicated. All that matters is how much of it is there and how many people want to buy it. AAPL keets buying back shares and hedge funds have huge positions in the stock. That alone should buoy price, but the problem that is created is you have big portions in the hands of a few. You get a couple funds putting blocks on for bids you can get some huge movements, as was seen earlier this year. I'm not necesarrily bearish on the company itself, AAPL will be around for a very long time. I'm more bearish on returns going forward compared to the past.
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