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Started By
Message
Posted on 8/15/13 at 3:04 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:OTOH, in a straight bet along those lines, a VIX position might make sense.
I think he might be about to walk into the same trap with REITs, but we already discussed real estate a good bit in that thread from last Friday.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 3:10 pm to NC_Tigah
Yep.
TBT might be an interesting play as well. Almost this whole board (me included) was premature about jumping on the TBT bandwagon for five freaking years... but in the last 3 months it looks like it's finally started to take off.
TBT might be an interesting play as well. Almost this whole board (me included) was premature about jumping on the TBT bandwagon for five freaking years... but in the last 3 months it looks like it's finally started to take off.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 3:14 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
TBT
Closest thing to arbitrage that I can see.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 3:20 pm to Cmlsu5618
Yeah, but you never want to go too far out on a limb in tying your own personal fate to guessing what the Fed is going to do, so maybe VIX would be a better idea. There will likely be a lot of back and forth in the next few years.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 3:26 pm to Doc Fenton
haven't ya'll heard? Europe is bottoming.
Money going back into European stocks and debt.
Don't worry, when everyone figures out that Europe ain't fixed, money will come roaring back to US stocks.
Money going back into European stocks and debt.
Don't worry, when everyone figures out that Europe ain't fixed, money will come roaring back to US stocks.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 4:37 pm to Cmlsu5618
quote:
Closest thing to arbitrage that I can see.
TBT is a one-way bet. Might be a good bet.
But in terms of arbitrage, L/S positions, L/S funds and/or Structured Products seem better options to me.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 4:39 pm to Blakely Bimbo
quote:Who knows?
Don't worry, when everyone figures out that Europe ain't fixed, money will come roaring back to US stocks.
We're diversifying towards Europe FWIW.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 4:43 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Just FYI, That $2K is not "left over money", I invest before I pay any bills, buy any food, or buy any toys. It's off the top, it's paying yourself first. NOBODY gets paid before I pay myself, Not the utility company, not the bank, not THE frickING IRS. Now, I still pay those bills, but my priority is to myself and everyone else can wait in line.
That's a cute psychological game that you're playing with yourself
But let's be honest, you wouldn't be investing the money if you couldn't make the payments on your bills.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 5:07 pm to Powerman
quote:
That's a cute psychological game that you're playing with yourself
But let's be honest, you wouldn't be investing the money if you couldn't make the payments on your bills.
Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over, I'd end up saving or investing very little. When I made my financial future a priority, I increased my investing 10 fold, and I have always had plenty left over to pay my bills and have fun with.
Posted on 8/15/13 at 5:38 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:It will pay off . . . In Spades, Vol!
Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over
There are times I look back now, and wonder "How the H...., did this happen."
Good stuff.
Posted on 8/16/13 at 9:22 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
It will pay off . . . In Spades, Vol!
I've had success doing that - I set my retirement contributions and vowed to "increase it until it hurts". I went from $0 to $40k in less than 40 months by "paying myself first" - and I did debt reduction and other investments, too (although a lot of that was with "found money" - extra military training events, life insurance proceeds, etc.)
How did that happen?
Another thing I highly recommend is the automatic mortgage payment, tied to your paycheck. That is the greatest psychological boon I've ever discovered - although it technically hits the bank account, I never see it reflected in the available balance. So, in essence, I pay myself first (never goes into the bank), and the mortgage second - everything else is literally child's play to pay.
Posted on 8/16/13 at 11:27 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Who knows?
We're diversifying towards Europe FWIW.
AND you will be out before it turns again. Nothing happens before the German elections end of Sept.
After that, got to wait and see.
VIX isn't forecasting a big US downturn yet.
Posted on 8/16/13 at 12:43 pm to Blakely Bimbo
I like CVX less than 120....I have taken a beating the last few days. In fact, I have endured an ~9% slide in the last 30 days.
Ugh....
Ugh....
Posted on 8/16/13 at 12:51 pm to nelatf
quote:
I like CVX less than 120....I have taken a beating the last few days. In fact, I have endured an ~9% slide in the last 30 days.
It may be time to sell some puts...
Posted on 8/16/13 at 1:48 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
It may be time to sell some puts...
Or take my toys and go home!!! Still up for the year - get out and wait for the next panic....I dunno
Posted on 8/16/13 at 2:42 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Well people like Robert Shilling
I call him by his given name, Robert Shiller....
Posted on 8/16/13 at 2:45 pm to tirebiter
I just get confused because he played the character Larry Sanders on The Larry Sanders Show.
Posted on 8/16/13 at 3:00 pm to Doc Fenton
PM has been getting beat up lately, which I guess is good since my DRIP will just buy more.
But I just ran across this article regarding a pretty nice insider buy.
LINK
But I just ran across this article regarding a pretty nice insider buy.
LINK
Posted on 8/16/13 at 3:57 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over, I'd end up saving or investing very little. When I made my financial future a priority, I increased my investing 10 fold, and I have always had plenty left over to pay my bills and have fun with.
Being successful in personal finance is probably 95% psychology. Knowledge of finance alone is pretty useless without the personal discipline to execute a long term plan, and any type of mental gymnastics that keep a person on track is usually a good thing.
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