re: 2011 Alternative Scenario

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I'll bite. The defenses were even at worst. Alabama's offense was better. Do you think Alabama's offense played to their potential on 11/5/11? It took LSU overtime to beat Alabama's B or C game despite your Special Teams and defense playing better. On 1/9/12, your defense and special teams came to play, and Alabama was more than prepared for the offense you played. On 11/5/11, the game planned for Lee not Jefferson running the option. The option didn't really have that much success versus Alabama anyways, but it was enough for the win.

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That's a lot of typing to admit that, in the game touted as the biggest game of the century, BAMA lost at home with what everyone considered to be all the marbles on the line. Unless you're one of those guys who determines which team is better of factors other than the score, LSU was better when it appeared to matter most.

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LSU won on 11/5/11 because they made far fewer mistakes. When Alabama brought their A game, played less conservatively, and made no mistakes, LSU was blown out.

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No conformation bias in any of that...