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re: SBL 2013 Spring Training (Keepers 3/17, Slow Draft to follow)
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:22 pm to GynoSandberg
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:22 pm to GynoSandberg
What are your expectations for V-Mart this season? Where do you see him going in drafts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:23 pm
1
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:23 pm to GynoSandberg
Can we Inaugurate you in the fantasy HOF today? What can we expect about J Kipnis? Somewhere in between the 1st half & 2nd half of his season last yr? Been offered Trumbo for him and both seem in the same boat.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
"Somewhere in between" feels like a lame answer most of the time, but for examples like Kipnis it's the truth. I cite the fact that his stats show clear extremes on both sides of the "luck" measures, and he has all of the look of a player in the midst of his early-career adjustment period. But he's such a good power/speed guy at a weak position, give me him over the mostly power-driven Trumbo.
Tristan, what happened to Tommy Hanson? Does Anaheim help him at all?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
His average fastball velocity has dropped in each of the past two years to the point it's regularly beneath 90 mph, it has become considerably more hittable as a result, and he's leaning way too much on his slider (which increases the chance of further injury in my opinion). There's a very real chance of statistical implosion; like you pick him as the third or fourth starter on your team, get a month or two of poor production and then he misses much of the rest of the year. I'm avoiding him wherever possible, just because he's trending downward badly.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
"Somewhere in between" feels like a lame answer most of the time, but for examples like Kipnis it's the truth. I cite the fact that his stats show clear extremes on both sides of the "luck" measures, and he has all of the look of a player in the midst of his early-career adjustment period. But he's such a good power/speed guy at a weak position, give me him over the mostly power-driven Trumbo.
Tristan, what happened to Tommy Hanson? Does Anaheim help him at all?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
His average fastball velocity has dropped in each of the past two years to the point it's regularly beneath 90 mph, it has become considerably more hittable as a result, and he's leaning way too much on his slider (which increases the chance of further injury in my opinion). There's a very real chance of statistical implosion; like you pick him as the third or fourth starter on your team, get a month or two of poor production and then he misses much of the rest of the year. I'm avoiding him wherever possible, just because he's trending downward badly.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:24 pm
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