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re: SBL 2013 Spring Training (Keepers 3/17, Slow Draft to follow)
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:21 pm to GynoSandberg
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:21 pm to GynoSandberg
Can Kris Medlen repeat his second half dominance?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
He has effectively zero chance of that, but I point you to Daniel Hudson's late-season dominance in what, 2010, as a fair comparison point. Hudson regressed as everyone should've expected, but to a range that still kept him high in the starting pitching rankings. It's the kind of thing where the player is a top-10 starter on a per-start basis in the past year, but in the upcoming year he's a guy who makes more starts, but the sum is more of a top-25 guy. That's Medlen to me. More innings, higher ratios. But tremendous skills.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
He has effectively zero chance of that, but I point you to Daniel Hudson's late-season dominance in what, 2010, as a fair comparison point. Hudson regressed as everyone should've expected, but to a range that still kept him high in the starting pitching rankings. It's the kind of thing where the player is a top-10 starter on a per-start basis in the past year, but in the upcoming year he's a guy who makes more starts, but the sum is more of a top-25 guy. That's Medlen to me. More innings, higher ratios. But tremendous skills.
1
Posted on 1/22/13 at 1:22 pm to GynoSandberg
What are your expectations for V-Mart this season? Where do you see him going in drafts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
Let's say I'll be monitoring him very carefully once camps open -- and as a catcher and a player fresh off injury he'll surely be reporting early -- but I'm cautiously optimistic for now. I'm shaving maybe 10-15 percent of his value off the top based on the missed year, but as a middle-of-the-order hitter for a solid Tigers lineup, I think he might instantly become a top-five catcher again. I think he belongs in the discussion as the 100th overall pick of the draft approaches. I ranked him 110th, but I'll be thinking about him a little before that.
Thanks for the chat time Tristan, always appreciate your insights. Do you buy into Fielder's odd-year success? Looking to land a big bat at first but wondering if I can target some less pricey guys like Butler, Ike, Hosmer...
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
No. Odd-even year patterns are ridiculous analysis, even though I know there's the temptation to believe in them because of a few isolated examples in the history books. Fielder's chances of repeating are outstanding considering the Tigers have added Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter to further bolster the lineup behind him, so I cannot see how that pattern holds up. First-round pick, pretty easy call.I do think the other three are fine choices late if you prefer to wait, but "reaching" for Fielder at the end of the first doesn't bother me one bit.
This post was edited on 1/22/13 at 1:23 pm
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