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Message
re: An Updated List Of Things Miles Needs To Do To Become More "Saban Like"
Posted on 11/29/12 at 2:01 pm to GeauxTigerTM
Posted on 11/29/12 at 2:01 pm to GeauxTigerTM
This will be a lengthy post. Don't read it if you are troubled by exposition.
I am going to respond to GTTM because I regard him as a fairly sober, rational human. One who who is capable of carrying on a topical, measured dialogue. I do this knowing full well that my response will subject me to the inane flailings of deluded zealots here. So be it.
The notion of a "guaranteed" improvement is fantastical. No coaching search ever has a "guaranteed" result. If Miles were perennially finishing 8-4, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would do better. If Miles were perennially recording a 6-6 mark, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would improve that mark. Indeed, history demonstrates this axiom. Archer was abysmal, and yet there was still no "guarantee" his successor would be better. Hallman was, in fact, worse.
(And of course, it's also true that one often doesn't know precisely which coaches are available for hire until the search commences. To wit, no one knew Saban was interested in the LSU job when DiNardo was fired in 1999. This uncertainty as to available candidates makes it yet more difficult to "guarantee" any particular hire or to exclude any particular hire from consideration a priori.)
If coaching replacements were premised on "guarantees," they would quite literally never occur.
Rather, the proper metric is risk-reward. Do you believe that prospects of improving the program through a new hire outweigh the risk that the new hire will perform at levels below that of his predecessor? Restated, what is the probability that the new hire will improve the program and what is the magnitude and value of that improvement? This analysis is fairly straightforward and easy to apply in cases where a team is 3-8. It becomes much more difficult to apply in instances where a program is consistently successful, yet has not fulfilled the zenith of its potential.
Applying the algorithm to Miles and LSU, it is worth noting again precisely what you conceded in your original post: that Alabama is a better program than LSU right now. Moreover, sane people will agree that Saban is a better coach than Miles. (The modfier "sane" is quite intentional - I know there are marginal ideologues who will still claim that Miles is "better" even if Saban hoists his third NC trophy in four years.) I've recited the litany of evidence before, but I'll do it again for the sake of thoroughness: NC's: Saban 3 Miles 1; SECCG's: Saban 3 Miles 2; Overall Undefeated Seasons: Saban 1 Miles 0; Undefeated Regular Seasons: Saban 2 Miles 1; Head to Head: Saban 4 Miles 3 (4-2 in last six excluding Saban's first year at Bama when he had none of his recruits; 2-0 in the last two games); Recruiting: Alabama's consensus class rating has exceeded LSU's in each year of Saban's Alabama tenure.
All objective indicia favor Saban and Alabama.
So, the proper formulation of the question is as follows: Given that LSU is the second best program in the SEC West, given that Saban is a better coach than Miles, and given that this state of affairs appears unlikely to change in the near future, is it worth the risk of hiring a new coach in order to give LSU the potential opportunity to surpass Alabama, become the preeminent program in the SEC, and become an NC dynasty?
Put another way: with Miles as the head coach at LSU, evidence suggests that LSU will remain second best to Alabama, albeit by a fairly narrow margin. Hiring a new coach would offer the possibility that LSU could surpass Alabama, though it also entails the risk that LSU could decline, perhaps significantly.
If you don't believe that hiring a new coach is worth the risk, I think you have to (a) resign yourself to being happy with second best in the SEC West for the foreseeable future; (b) await the day that Miles improves and is able to supercede Saban and Alabama - dare I say that this position requires "rampant speculation and hope"; or (c) pray that Saban leaves Alabama.
Hypothetically, if LSU were a privately held concern and I owned one hundred percent of the voting stock, I would gamble. It's my personal view that the modern LSU has the fiscal resources, facilities, professionalism, and recruiting base to become a national championship dynasty. I believe there are a range of coaches who could succeed here on a national stage.
However, I also recognize that, realistically, the LSU AD isn't going to voluntarily fire Miles so long as he is winning games. Consequently, the immediate future of the program will likely be as follows: LSU will retain Miles, Miles will continue to have good or even very good W-L records, Saban will remain a better coach than Miles overall, Alabama will remain a better program than LSU in the aggregate, LSU will be denied a dynasty while Alabama collects its crystal trophies.
That's not intended to be incendiary propoganda and shouldn't be recieved as such. It's just what has happened of late: LSU has had good seasons, Alabama has established a national championship dynasty.
This pattern will continue until either Miles or Saban departs, at which point the quality of the new hire will dictate the dynamics of the rivalry.
In the meantime - because ultimately it is the only option at my disposal - I'll continue to make my ragged sojourn to Tiger Stadium and various college towns throughout the south, I'll pour money into the program and bourbon down my gullet, I'll cheer as loudly as I can at games, and I'll hope against hope that the hand of genius belatedly annoints Miles and that he reverses the current hierarchy at the top of the SEC West.
I really have nothing else to say on this topic. On to the bowl and recruiting.
I am going to respond to GTTM because I regard him as a fairly sober, rational human. One who who is capable of carrying on a topical, measured dialogue. I do this knowing full well that my response will subject me to the inane flailings of deluded zealots here. So be it.
quote:
I like Miles but would replace him instantaneously if anyone here could guarantee a replacement that would do better.
The notion of a "guaranteed" improvement is fantastical. No coaching search ever has a "guaranteed" result. If Miles were perennially finishing 8-4, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would do better. If Miles were perennially recording a 6-6 mark, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would improve that mark. Indeed, history demonstrates this axiom. Archer was abysmal, and yet there was still no "guarantee" his successor would be better. Hallman was, in fact, worse.
(And of course, it's also true that one often doesn't know precisely which coaches are available for hire until the search commences. To wit, no one knew Saban was interested in the LSU job when DiNardo was fired in 1999. This uncertainty as to available candidates makes it yet more difficult to "guarantee" any particular hire or to exclude any particular hire from consideration a priori.)
If coaching replacements were premised on "guarantees," they would quite literally never occur.
Rather, the proper metric is risk-reward. Do you believe that prospects of improving the program through a new hire outweigh the risk that the new hire will perform at levels below that of his predecessor? Restated, what is the probability that the new hire will improve the program and what is the magnitude and value of that improvement? This analysis is fairly straightforward and easy to apply in cases where a team is 3-8. It becomes much more difficult to apply in instances where a program is consistently successful, yet has not fulfilled the zenith of its potential.
Applying the algorithm to Miles and LSU, it is worth noting again precisely what you conceded in your original post: that Alabama is a better program than LSU right now. Moreover, sane people will agree that Saban is a better coach than Miles. (The modfier "sane" is quite intentional - I know there are marginal ideologues who will still claim that Miles is "better" even if Saban hoists his third NC trophy in four years.) I've recited the litany of evidence before, but I'll do it again for the sake of thoroughness: NC's: Saban 3 Miles 1; SECCG's: Saban 3 Miles 2; Overall Undefeated Seasons: Saban 1 Miles 0; Undefeated Regular Seasons: Saban 2 Miles 1; Head to Head: Saban 4 Miles 3 (4-2 in last six excluding Saban's first year at Bama when he had none of his recruits; 2-0 in the last two games); Recruiting: Alabama's consensus class rating has exceeded LSU's in each year of Saban's Alabama tenure.
All objective indicia favor Saban and Alabama.
So, the proper formulation of the question is as follows: Given that LSU is the second best program in the SEC West, given that Saban is a better coach than Miles, and given that this state of affairs appears unlikely to change in the near future, is it worth the risk of hiring a new coach in order to give LSU the potential opportunity to surpass Alabama, become the preeminent program in the SEC, and become an NC dynasty?
Put another way: with Miles as the head coach at LSU, evidence suggests that LSU will remain second best to Alabama, albeit by a fairly narrow margin. Hiring a new coach would offer the possibility that LSU could surpass Alabama, though it also entails the risk that LSU could decline, perhaps significantly.
If you don't believe that hiring a new coach is worth the risk, I think you have to (a) resign yourself to being happy with second best in the SEC West for the foreseeable future; (b) await the day that Miles improves and is able to supercede Saban and Alabama - dare I say that this position requires "rampant speculation and hope"; or (c) pray that Saban leaves Alabama.
Hypothetically, if LSU were a privately held concern and I owned one hundred percent of the voting stock, I would gamble. It's my personal view that the modern LSU has the fiscal resources, facilities, professionalism, and recruiting base to become a national championship dynasty. I believe there are a range of coaches who could succeed here on a national stage.
However, I also recognize that, realistically, the LSU AD isn't going to voluntarily fire Miles so long as he is winning games. Consequently, the immediate future of the program will likely be as follows: LSU will retain Miles, Miles will continue to have good or even very good W-L records, Saban will remain a better coach than Miles overall, Alabama will remain a better program than LSU in the aggregate, LSU will be denied a dynasty while Alabama collects its crystal trophies.
That's not intended to be incendiary propoganda and shouldn't be recieved as such. It's just what has happened of late: LSU has had good seasons, Alabama has established a national championship dynasty.
This pattern will continue until either Miles or Saban departs, at which point the quality of the new hire will dictate the dynamics of the rivalry.
In the meantime - because ultimately it is the only option at my disposal - I'll continue to make my ragged sojourn to Tiger Stadium and various college towns throughout the south, I'll pour money into the program and bourbon down my gullet, I'll cheer as loudly as I can at games, and I'll hope against hope that the hand of genius belatedly annoints Miles and that he reverses the current hierarchy at the top of the SEC West.
I really have nothing else to say on this topic. On to the bowl and recruiting.
This post was edited on 11/29/12 at 2:03 pm
5
Posted on 11/29/12 at 2:15 pm to The312
quote:
I've recited the litany of evidence before, but I'll do it again for the sake of thoroughness: NC's: Saban 3 Miles 1; SECCG's: Saban 3 Miles 2; Overall Undefeated Seasons: Saban 1 Miles 0; Undefeated Regular Seasons: Saban 2 Miles 1; Head to Head: Saban 4 Miles 3 (4-2 in last six excluding Saban's first year at Bama when he had none of his recruits; 2-0 in the last two games); Recruiting: Alabama's consensus class rating has exceeded LSU's in each year of Saban's Alabama tenure.
These numbers are true, however I have one simple problem with them. They change drastically if ESPN did not reward Alabama a mulligan last year. LSU, not Alabama, won the 11/5 game. ESPN makes up crap such as "the eye test." Let me ask you, what did ESPN's eye test say about Texas A&M being a 14 point dog to alabama? Did the eye test lie to them?
The rematch should have never happened. Some will argue that LSU lost by 21 points. I would argue that in 1996 Bobby Bowden lost his rematch game for the title by 36 points. In 1996, Bobby Bowden took a back seat to nobody in the coaching ranks. The coach with the most D-1 wins in history was skull dragged by 36. It wasn't because he sucked and it wasn't because Florida was that much better.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 2:20 pm to The312
Great read.
Wow. So there can be poster that actually posts logic as opposed to "Miles is the best coach ever blah blah blah"
This is exactly what I've been saying for two days. We will not be (or there is a very small chance) that we will be the top team in the SEC with Miles at LSU and Saban at Bama.
quote:
If you don't believe that hiring a new coach is worth the risk, I think you have to (a) resign yourself to being happy with second best in the SEC West for the foreseeable future; (b) await the day that Miles improves and is able to supercede Saban and Alabama - dare I say that this position requires "rampant speculation and hope"; or (c) pray that Saban leaves Alabama.
Wow. So there can be poster that actually posts logic as opposed to "Miles is the best coach ever blah blah blah"
This is exactly what I've been saying for two days. We will not be (or there is a very small chance) that we will be the top team in the SEC with Miles at LSU and Saban at Bama.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 2:45 pm to The312
quote:
The notion of a "guaranteed" improvement is fantastical. No coaching search ever has a "guaranteed" result. If Miles were perennially finishing 8-4, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would do better. If Miles were perennially recording a 6-6 mark, there would be no "guarantee" that his successor would improve that mark. Indeed, history demonstrates this axiom. Archer was abysmal, and yet there was still no "guarantee" his successor would be better. Hallman was, in fact, worse.
If coaching replacements were premised on "guarantees," they would quite literally never occur.
I agree almost entirely with this...except for the never happen business. But I have a feeling you're getting there, so I'll wait.
quote:
Rather, the proper metric is risk-reward.
Yes...agreed.
quote:
This analysis is fairly straightforward and easy to apply in cases where a team is 3-8. It becomes much more difficult to apply in instances where a program is consistently successful, yet has not fulfilled the zenith of its potential.
Without question, and it's essentially my point above. Given the position of our program, I find the room for improvement to be so slight that the risk of making a change is far greater than the potential slight, though important, improvement. But I want to see where you're going, so let's continue...
quote:
Applying the algorithm to Miles and LSU, it is worth noting again precisely what you conceded in your original post: that Alabama is a better program than LSU right now.
I do think that, though I think it's very VERY narrow to be dead honest. A few minor things go in a different direction, and we're very likely talking about LSU in the driver's seat for back to back titles. But yes, I'd say BAMA would be the only program could honestly say they covet at this point...assuming they are basing their covetousness on wins and losses.
quote:
Moreover, sane people will agree that Saban is a better coach than Miles.
Yeah...I'd agree. To say this isn't not a slight on Miles, though. Saban may, at the end of the day, be in the same legendary class at Rockne, Bryant, etc. I'd say it's a hell of a compliment to say Miles is more than holding his own with Saban as a contemporary.
quote:
I've recited the litany of evidence before, but I'll do it again for the sake of thoroughness: NC's: Saban 3 Miles 1; SECCG's: Saban 3 Miles 2;
The numbers don't lie, though I do ask that they be represented equally. there are fans here who essentially give Miles no credit for the SEC Title last year because of the egg laid in the BCSNCG...despite the historic run that got them there. On the other hand, Saban's falling backwards into the 2001 SEC Title during a season when they got curbed stomped by Florida at home at took a loss so bad to ole Miss at home that fans were calling radio stations declaring that the Yankee Big 10 coach needed to go...all of which was repeated by Saban himself at his weekly radio show. It certainly counts, no doubt...and I enjoyed the hell out of it! But I just wanted it noted that if Saban get hailed a hero for 2001, Miles shouldn't be labeled a goat for the 2012 SEC Title.
quote:
Head to Head: Saban 4 Miles 3 (4-2 in last six excluding Saban's first year at Bama when he had none of his recruits
I have no interest in giving Saban a pass for year one any more than I'd not give him credit for his early success at LSU with Dinardo's guys. Saban is up 4-3...period.
quote:
Recruiting: Alabama's consensus class rating has exceeded LSU's in each year of Saban's Alabama tenure.
Yeah, but this is one that I'm not nearly as sure about. Not that I think the services are all wrong...they're not. I just don't draw a huge difference between the top group of teams in the list each year. Truth is, both BAMA and LSU are loading up year in and year out with some of the bluest of the blue chip high school football players in the country.
quote:
All objective indicia favor Saban and Alabama.
Even with the few nits I picked above, I'd be happy conceding this point anyway.
quote:
So, the proper formulation of the question is as follows: Given that LSU is the second best program in the SEC West, given that Saban is a better coach than Miles, and given that this state of affairs appears unlikely to change in the near future, is it worth the risk of hiring a new coach in order to give LSU the potential opportunity to surpass Alabama, become the preeminent program in the SEC, and become an NC dynasty?
Fine...but this could still be true even with Miles winning another title, or two if BAMA keeps this pace. Even if BAMA won 2 out of every 3 with LSU taking the third, on average LSU would still average second best overall right? I see you're going to ask the question below, so I'll wait to answer there, but I think you see where I'm going.
quote:
Hypothetically, if LSU were a privately held concern and I owned one hundred percent of the voting stock, I would gamble./quote]
I wouldn't, because while I recognize that there is room for improvement, the room is just so tiny that the risk of making a mistake is simply too great. As I pointed out above, even if you concede #1 to BAMA over the long haul, that does not mean that #2 can not have incredible success, regardless of how you define it. And considering I don;t think BAMA is that far out in front, it really doesn't warrant the risk.
[quote]Consequently, the immediate future of the program will likely be as follows: LSU will retain Miles, Miles will continue to have good or even very good W-L records, Saban will remain a better coach than Miles overall, Alabama will remain a better program than LSU in the aggregate, LSU will be denied a dynasty while Alabama collects its crystal trophies.
That's wholly speculative, but it's not a terrible assessment. I tend to see it as a very close swing back and forth between the two monster programs. To be blunt, I don't think there would be much separation AT ALL with an equitable schedule...but that's another topic.
quote:
LSU has had good seasons, Alabama has established a national championship dynasty.
2011 was historically good for LSU...right up until the end. One loss just doesn't relegate that season to "good" for me.
quote:
This pattern will continue until either Miles or Saban departs, at which point the quality of the new hire will dictate the dynamics of the rivalry.
I think this is the case for all new hires in the SEC. If AU brings in a monster, it will be felt in Tuscaloosa...and Baton Rouge...and College Station, etc. Same with TENN.
quote:
I'll continue to make my ragged sojourn to Tiger Stadium and various college towns throughout the south, I'll pour money into the program and bourbon down my gullet, I'll cheer as loudly as I can at games, and I'll hope against hope that the hand of genius belatedly annoints Miles and that he reverses the current hierarchy at the top of the SEC West.
I'm a bit more optimistic, obviously...and not a drinker, but I'll certainly be out there pulling for the Tigers in such a manner that leaves my voice unsealable until Tuesday the follow week.
I appreciate the post, even if no one else reads it.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 3:27 pm to The312
quote:
The312
Thank you for the reply.
quote:
This will be a lengthy post. Don't read it if you are troubled by exposition.
I enjoy long reads.
quote:
Applying the algorithm to Miles and LSU, it is worth noting again precisely what you conceded in your original post: that Alabama is a better program than LSU right now. Moreover, sane people will agree that Saban is a better coach than Miles. (The modfier "sane" is quite intentional - I know there are marginal ideologues who will still claim that Miles is "better" even if Saban hoists his third NC trophy in four years.) I've recited the litany of evidence before, but I'll do it again for the sake of thoroughness: NC's: Saban 3 Miles 1; SECCG's: Saban 3 Miles 2; Overall Undefeated Seasons: Saban 1 Miles 0; Undefeated Regular Seasons: Saban 2 Miles 1; Head to Head: Saban 4 Miles 3 (4-2 in last six excluding Saban's first year at Bama when he had none of his recruits; 2-0 in the last two games); Recruiting: Alabama's consensus class rating has exceeded LSU's in each year of Saban's Alabama tenure.
First off, when was Saban's other unbeaten regular season? I only recall 2009. He lost the SECCG in 2008, I can only assume you factor SECCG as post season. If so, cool.
Outside of that, I will concede that based on the pure numbers of NCs vs SEC titles, yes Saban is in the lead. Again, the point I'm making, is that in terms of coaching, etc, Saban and Miles aren't that far apart. Couple that with the fact that Saban has been granted Mulligans WITH his easy schedule, you clearly have a formula for success that I believe Miles could match.
Overall, IF you and I both agree they are great coaches, and IF we choose to disagree that Saban is MUCH better than Miles, while Saban is God, then I would not want to replace Miles at all given the circumstances I've stated. I think there is only one way to go as a fan, and that's backwards.
So, if it makes you happy, fine: Saban is God and he is perfect. When he loses he really wins and deserves all the accolades that come with making good on his redos.
Miles, while full of flaws, is right up there with Saban. Miles must take full responsibility of his losses and can't look back. At the end of the day, who do you replace #2 with, when you know you can't have #1? You don't.
Perhaps one day LSU will garner the same respect Bama does as a program. When that day comes, it will be Miles on Sportcenter begging for Mulligans while Sabans team is earning it on the field. Miles will take the Tigers, blast the Tide in the rematch, and LSU will be one step closer to the praise they so duly deserve. However, this day will never come. LSU will NEVER be the Brand Bama is, and Miles will continue to win under different standards/circumstances, which honesty, endear him more to me as a fan.
So, we continue to agree to disagree on a few points.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 3:41 pm to The312
quote:
If you don't believe that hiring a new coach is worth the risk, I think you have to (a) resign yourself to being happy with second best in the SEC West for the foreseeable future; (b) await the day that Miles improves and is able to supercede Saban and Alabama - dare I say that this position requires "rampant speculation and hope"; or (c) pray that Saban leaves Alabama.
Continuing the discussion bc it will be a long one:
A) When this playoff hits, I fully expect (though I know I will be crushed) for LSU to be given an opportunity to beat Bama in the post season. IF Miles can make good on it, attitudes will change quickly
B) You do that, until the Mulligan, Miles was 3-2 against Saban, correct? Saban evened it out then took the lead this year. Also, see the history of the games between Miles and Saban. You people act as if LSU is powerless against Bama when that isn't the case at all. If it weren't for Brand recognition, it's a 3-3 series head to head and 2-2 in NCs...
C) Saban will never leave Bama. Why should he now? Saban is smart enough to know what Brand Recognition has bought him. Did you see his comments recently about Florida? There's a reason Saban is being a hypocrite. He simply doesn't want other Conference Teams to garner the same treatment his program gets. Everyone else has to earn it, not him.
quote:
Hypothetically, if LSU were a privately held concern and I owned one hundred percent of the voting stock, I would gamble. It's my personal view that the modern LSU has the fiscal resources, facilities, professionalism, and recruiting base to become a national championship dynasty. I believe there are a range of coaches who could succeed here on a national stage.
And here is where reality kicks in:
College football is a beauty contest. In the eyes of the people who hold the power, LSU is a nice contestent, but is a butterface bc she won't bring the ratings they want in the big game. Not to mention butterface represents the anus of the US. Yes, this is how LA is viewed in the world of journalism. Sad but true. Bama, on the other hand, is a beauty queen that hasn't aged in almost 40 years...
quote:
However, I also recognize that, realistically, the LSU AD isn't going to voluntarily fire Miles so long as he is winning games. Consequently, the immediate future of the program will likely be as follows: LSU will retain Miles, Miles will continue to have good or even very good W-L records, Saban will remain a better coach than Miles overall, Alabama will remain a better program than LSU in the aggregate, LSU will be denied a dynasty while Alabama collects its crystal trophies.
I can see this happening as well, especially when the playoff hits. Bama will be able to finish third in the conference and still be forced in the playoff system in which they will make good. So, regardless of who our coach is here, they will have to get used to beating Bama twice a year come 2014. Beat them once to qualify for the SEC title and possible playoff, then beat them again in the playoff. Double standards suck, but that's college football today.
quote:
That's not intended to be incendiary propoganda and shouldn't be recieved as such. It's just what has happened of late: LSU has had good seasons, Alabama has established a national championship dynasty
Yes, they have, while having arguably seasons that are worse than LSU's. Again, how does this not happen with a lot of luck? Why can't you people address this? It is obvious....
2011 - Worse season than LSU...win title
2012 - Play two ranked teams, lose one at home, play for title. LSU plays four ranked teams, splits (just like Bama), sit at home. UF actually has a bigger gripe this year.
quote:
In the meantime - because ultimately it is the only option at my disposal - I'll continue to make my ragged sojourn to Tiger Stadium and various college towns throughout the south, I'll pour money into the program and bourbon down my gullet, I'll cheer as loudly as I can at games, and I'll hope against hope that the hand of genius belatedly annoints Miles and that he reverses the current hierarchy at the top of the SEC West.
Amen to that.
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