re: How likely is it that TA&M jumps LSU for a BCS spot?

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LSU does not have as much national appeal as you think.

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Beg to differ. Since 2000, only Notre Dame,(which has their on TV network) has appeared in more nationally televised games than LSU. The Tigers typically draw nice T.V ratings and possess a rabid following on the road. That being said, they are a dark horse to get into a BCS bowl this season simply because they are behind three other SEC schools. As noted, Florida would pretty much have to lose to FSU and 'Bama would have to defeat UGA. Cotton or Cap1 likely for the Tigers if they win out.