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Hypothetically, why can't LSU make it to the big game?
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:55 am
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:55 am
Obviously, LSU will never get to the BCSNC game. What if every possibly scenario happened that would move LSU into the number 2 spot in the polls?
It sounds like it is impossible for LSU to get there, but sitting at #7, is it really?
Let's say TCU beats K-State. K-State to 6 or 7, LSU up to 6
Stanford/Oregon State upsets Oregon. Oregon to 6 or 7, LSU to 5
USC beats ND. ND to 6 or 7, LSU to 4
Florida State beats Florida. LSU to 3
Alabama beats Georgia. LSU to 2
While I know this is 99.99% unlikely to happen, but if this was the scenario (also assuming there is still time for upsets from other teams), would LSU still have a chance to get into the national championship game?
Watching BCS countdown last night, it felt that LSU had 0% chance to make it even with the previous scenarios playing out. Am I missing something with how the National Championship teams are picked?
It sounds like it is impossible for LSU to get there, but sitting at #7, is it really?
Let's say TCU beats K-State. K-State to 6 or 7, LSU up to 6
Stanford/Oregon State upsets Oregon. Oregon to 6 or 7, LSU to 5
USC beats ND. ND to 6 or 7, LSU to 4
Florida State beats Florida. LSU to 3
Alabama beats Georgia. LSU to 2
While I know this is 99.99% unlikely to happen, but if this was the scenario (also assuming there is still time for upsets from other teams), would LSU still have a chance to get into the national championship game?
Watching BCS countdown last night, it felt that LSU had 0% chance to make it even with the previous scenarios playing out. Am I missing something with how the National Championship teams are picked?
13
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:57 am to 1MileTiger
You answered your question yourself.
Yes, if everything were to happen LSU could still make it 2007 style. Very unlikely, but possible nonetheless.
Yes, if everything were to happen LSU could still make it 2007 style. Very unlikely, but possible nonetheless.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:57 am to 1MileTiger
That's what I asked, it'd be complete chaos, but when it comes down to it.
Does a 2-loss SEC team (where both losses come to top-10 opponents) get in over a 1-loss AQ? I'm not sure
But it doesn't matter because this requires a lot to go right, and somewhere in that chain it will go against us this time.
Does a 2-loss SEC team (where both losses come to top-10 opponents) get in over a 1-loss AQ? I'm not sure
But it doesn't matter because this requires a lot to go right, and somewhere in that chain it will go against us this time.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:58 am to 1MileTiger
you forgot Miles joining the gameday panel and begging for a rematch
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:01 am to 1MileTiger
we are a 2 loss team, the others would be one loss for the most part. human voters would most likely keep them above us.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:03 am to 1MileTiger
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:03 am to 1MileTiger
I just don't know for sure if we'd be ahead of all three of those one-loss teams even after they lose their first game.
Probably Notre Dame, but I'm not sure about the other two.
Cal has given Oregon trouble the last two years, even though they have been bad each of those seasons. Oregon losing to Cal, and Kansas State losing to TCU would probably do the trick.
It's pretty much impossible though.
Probably Notre Dame, but I'm not sure about the other two.
Cal has given Oregon trouble the last two years, even though they have been bad each of those seasons. Oregon losing to Cal, and Kansas State losing to TCU would probably do the trick.
It's pretty much impossible though.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:03 am to 1MileTiger
Impossible? No.
Improbable? Yes.
It was possible but highly improbably in 2007 and we know how that turned out.
If I remember correctly, we jumped from #7 ranking all the way up to #2 after beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
So yeah it's improbably, but crazier things have happened.
Improbable? Yes.
It was possible but highly improbably in 2007 and we know how that turned out.
If I remember correctly, we jumped from #7 ranking all the way up to #2 after beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
So yeah it's improbably, but crazier things have happened.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:06 am to 1MileTiger
What would happen in the MNC game if a 13-0 Alabama lost to a 10-2 LSU? You'd award the trophy to the 11-2 team over the 13-1 team?
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:07 am to 1MileTiger
Anybody remember 2007...?
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:08 am to 1MileTiger
reaching
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:20 am to 1MileTiger
I hear ya, but if Oregon loses a close regular season game, then wins the PAC12CG I think the voters would move them ahead of us.
Best case scenario would be Oregon losing PAC12CG by 10 or so. Anything closer and they're going to get their shot at the SEC Champ instead of a Bama LSU rematch, same way Okie State should have last year.
Guaranteed.
Best case scenario would be Oregon losing PAC12CG by 10 or so. Anything closer and they're going to get their shot at the SEC Champ instead of a Bama LSU rematch, same way Okie State should have last year.
Guaranteed.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 11:31 am to 1MileTiger
Unfortunately, I think we would have to be clearly above any other choice the voters have - meaning everyone else would have to have at least 2 losses.
The voters control it at the end of the day, and while it appears they wanted a rematch last year, I believe they only REALLY wanted to see Bama in the NC and used the 'they really are the best team' argument.
I'd love to be wrong, but if Bama is already in, voting for a rematch will be the last thing they want. We'd have to win out 60-0 every game, and the other top 10s would have to lose by about the same - twice.
The voters control it at the end of the day, and while it appears they wanted a rematch last year, I believe they only REALLY wanted to see Bama in the NC and used the 'they really are the best team' argument.
I'd love to be wrong, but if Bama is already in, voting for a rematch will be the last thing they want. We'd have to win out 60-0 every game, and the other top 10s would have to lose by about the same - twice.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 12:13 pm to 1MileTiger
would have to account for louisville in this scenario as well. i feel ridiculous typing that.
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