re: Analyzing Miles and LSU

quote:

---

(1) Since 2007 the only time the offense has rarely clicked, is in the early half of 2011 when Lee posed the genuine passing threat, defensive teams did not pack the box that much or got burnt doing so.

---

Mike - I respect the work that went into your analysis. The problem with generalities such as this is they are often wrong (and sometimes very wrong).

Let's take 2008 - the offense was EXTREMELY balanced. We rushed 495 times, versus 391 pass attempts, but we averaged over 200 yards per game passing, versus only 167 yards rushing. We roughly split TOP with our opponents and had a slightly under 40% success rate on both 3rd and 4th down. We scored 50 touchdowns - 48 offensively including 27 rushing and 21 passing. We only lost 2 fumbles (out of only 16) all season. We were 91% in redzone scoring, including 74% redzone touchdowns. We earned 254 first downs, 122 by rushing, 114 passing and 18 by penalty. We averaged 4.4 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass.

The ONLY glaring negative offensive statistic is interceptions - 18 - we had 2 freshmen quarterbacks. The fact that many of those were returned for touchdowns is the exception that proves the rule the offense was, arguably, clicking in 2008. In 5 losses, we scored 21, 38, 21, 13 and 30 - the margins of loss were 30, 14, 6(OT), 18 and 1.

We also defeated a ranked bowl opponent (Ga. Tech) 38-3.

The offensive numbers dipped in 2009, but much of that came out of running production - the TOP averaged dipped to just under 28 minutes and we had significantly fewer plays (I think that was the first year of the new clock rules). The average per pass went up to 7.0 yards, while the rushing average dipped to 3.7 yards per carry. Scoring also dipped, particularly in the losses, to 3, 15, 23 and 17 points (for an average of about 14 1/2 points in the losses).

The passing game devolved as the combination of Jefferson and Lee didn't progress (at least not appreciably. It was not a reliable component of the team.) HOWEVER, there were several instances the offense "clicked", even in relatively poor offensive (especially scoring-wise) 2010. The early game against UNC in 2010 had us gaining 5.5 yards per offensive play (although the defense allowed that as well), also in 2010, @Gainesville we were 100% in the redzone, 50% on 3rd down, and 2-2 on 4th down.

My argument has always been, the playcalling is dictated by the play of the QB. The better the QB plays, the more open the playcalling gets. I may have to expand that to include pass protection by the OL and WR play. If you want to blame our current woes on some of Miles' quirks/offensive philosophy/failure to do his job vis-a-vis QBs/WRs/OL, fine - that is all fair.

To say the offense has not "clicked" since 2007 is patently unfair and provably false - the offense was clicking on all cylinders last year until the Bama game. I agree Miles has seemed unusually conservative since that time. That was not the case @ Gainesville, however. Clearly the offensive game plan was to throw more and it looked like it would work, at first. Then, the whole thing bogged down (as the offense has consistently done since the Bama game in Tuscaloosa last year, with dramatic reversals in the second half against Arkansas and UGA).

I don't have an explanation but a generality that "the offense hasn't clicked since 2007" isn't going to work because it isn't accurate.