re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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But I don't think the Mance theory hinges on all the KG being alive

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No - I agree. But, Dayne at the Wall (as Halfhand) the same period that Mance was a member of the Watch (and, recall that Halfhand and Rayder were apparently friends) would at least bolster support for the Mance=Rhaegar theory - IMHO. Although I believe the former is more likely than the latter.

(ETA: And there are suggestions that Rhaegar was plugged into the PtwP prophecy, too, and that, despite perhaps not being even legitimate, much less closer than 3rd to the throne at the time of the fight - 3 KG fought to the death to protect JS. At that point, Aerys and Rhaegar are dead, as are Rhaegar's other children - Viserys and Dany would be next in line - Viserys technically "crownable" as king, on paper.)