re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

Just finished a re-read of DoD and have have read either the text, a transcript or summary of (I think) all of the sample WoW chapters. So, I'm interested in a little speculation of the immediate next happenings.

Particularly, I'm curious about the outcome of the two battles and Jon's fate.

For the Mereen battle' signs seem to point to victory against the Yunkai. Barristan's attack is going well, the Iron Born are attacking the Yunkish ships and engaging on land. Tyrion and Brown Ben and company are thinking of swinging over. Danny is out there in the grass sea with her dragon and maybe a few Dothraki if she can cow them or win them over.

Of course anything can happen with Martin but that one seems to be going well.

With the Stannis/Bolton battle it's a lot more muddled. I know there is a lot of speculation that the letter from Ramsay was a fake or even not from him. But I don't know. At least Stannis got word about the Karstarks in time to apparently short circuit that danger. But both sides seem to be in a pretty shaky situation. Is Manderly going to flip (whether or not he gets word back from Davos?) Can Stannis' men hold off the Bolton men if they attack?

Jon - well this post is long enough. Will visit those questions later in the thread.