re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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Now I might be confusing the show with the books but doesn't Varys flat out tell Ned he's a "dead man" during his visit in the dungeon?

Whether he had a hand in it or not Varys knew he wouldn't make it to the wall.

And with all this "Varys knows but doesn't have a hand in it" is smelling more and more like he has a hand in it...

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You are confusing the show with the books. Varys did not want Ned dead, period. The one time we for sure see Varys when he is 100% honest about his plans is when Arya spies on Varys and Illyrio underneath Kings Landing. During that discussion Varys and Illyrio discuss how they are not ready for war to break out quite yet (i.e. neither Aegon or Viserys were in position to attack Westeros).

Varys knows that Ned finding out about Jaime and Cersei would lead to war, and he also knows Ned being killed would lead to war. The last thing Varys would want is Ned dying if he is trying to stall for time to allow Aegon to be ready to rule (or Viserys).

Sending Ned to the wall would be perfect for Varys, as it would settle things down enough to prevent war but also allow everything to be at a huge simmer, with him only having to provide a touch here or there to create chaos.