re: Rex's Official Record Prediction Thread

Some Trends from looking at the Saints since 2006
-Never gone undefeated in Division play (5-1 in 2011)

-Have lost to Tampa at least once every year since 2007

-Lose the Division game immediately following a Bye Week

-Are 2-1 in three weeks before bye week for 4 out of 6 seasons (0-3 2007, 3-0 2009)

-Are 2-0 in Dallas, but 0-1 against Cowboys in New Orleans

-Went 3-1 last cycle versus AFC West (Lost to Denver

-In 2006 and 2007, lost 3 games to AFC opponents each year. From 2008 to 2012, lost a total of 3 games to AFC opponents (Denver, Cleveland, Baltimore)

-3 Straight wins against NY Giants. (Think about it and let that sink in. F-ck the Niners.)

-Monday Night Football: 9-2 since 2006, 6-0 since 2009

-Sunday Night Football: 6-2 since 2006, both losses in Thursday Night Kickoff game

-Thursday Night Football: 0-2 on NFL Network, 1-4 on all Thursday games (1-0 Thanksgiving Classic)

...I could keep going but I won't. Apologizes in advance if too long for some. My predictions:


1. Washington, W
2. Carolina, W
3. Kansas City, W
4. Green Bay, L/W
5. San Diego, W
6. BYE
7. Tampa Bay, L/W
8. Denver, L/W
9. Philadelphia (Monday), W/L
10. Atlanta, W
11. Oakland, W
12. San Francisco, W
13. Atlanta (Thursday), L/W
14. NY Giants, W
15. Tampa Bay, W
16. Dallas, W
17. Carolina, W


Realistic best case scenario, 14-2. They will be 4-1 at worst before the bye week. If they beat Tampa Bay and Denver following the Bye, barring any major injuries or occurences the team will lose AT MOST 2 more games.


Realistic worst case scenario, 10-6, where they lose to both Tampa Bay and Denver and drop a game to Atlanta and two out of NY/Philadelphia/San Francisco/Dallas.


ABSOLUTE worst case scenario, 8-8. I can't see this being like old, pre-2006 Saints squads but anything is possible (remember when this used to be an EXPECTED mid/high record ?)


My Final Prediction (As of 7/9/12, assuming Drew Brees stars week 1): 12-4