quote:
Its like that board near the roulette tables listing the numbers that have won recently, just because they won in the past doesnt change the chance on where the ball lands next. If i was forced to bet, i would go with 1 or 2 rather than 3

Boom. We have a winner.

But I'll play along with the OP.

Let's say you have 4 teams and 10 ping pong balls.

Team A has the worst record, ergo more ping pong balls. Team D has the best record of the 4, ergo less ping pong balls.

Team A - 4/10 balls
Team B - 3/10 balls
Team C - 2/10 balls
Team D - 1/10 balls

Even in Chad's example, Team A may have a 60% chance of NOT getting the first pick, but let's break down the rest of the field's probability of NOT getting the first pick.

Team B - 70% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team C - 80% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team D - 90% chance of not getting the 1st pick

So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).

Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact. If you think that having the 1st or 2nd overall chance at winning the draft lotto means you have a worse chance than someone at #3 or #4, then you need to quit posting.

That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.

He took the 5th most shots on his team and took a lesser role and played hardcore defense. I wanna see his true potential when he decides to be THE MAN. He could be scary good.

This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 11:56 am

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Posted by VOR

Member since Apr 2009

64408 posts

Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:04 pm to dcrews

quote:
So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).

You're absolutely correct based upon the odds (statistics).

quote:
Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact.

Correct again.

Nevertheless, there is an 75% chance that the team with the worst record won't get the number one pick. It's just that its chances are a few percentage points higher than that of the third worst record. So past history aligns with the odds . . . the team with the worst record is more likely than not to miss out on the number one pick. Unfortunately, that doesn't increase the odds for any other specific team.

quote:
That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.

Good point. While I think you clearly take Davis if available, I'm not convinced he's as far ahead of everyone else as, say, LeBron was when he came out. Or that he will turn into Howard (although it's possible).

This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 12:05 pm

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Posted by Chad504boy

4 posts

Member since Feb 2005

170138 posts

Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:06 pm to dcrews

quote:
But I'll play along with the OP.

Let's say you have 4 teams and 10 ping pong balls.

Team A has the worst record, ergo more ping pong balls. Team D has the best record of the 4, ergo less ping pong balls.

Team A - 4/10 balls
Team B - 3/10 balls
Team C - 2/10 balls
Team D - 1/10 balls

Even in Chad's example, Team A may have a 60% chance of NOT getting the first pick, but let's break down the rest of the field's probability of NOT getting the first pick.

Team B - 70% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team C - 80% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team D - 90% chance of not getting the 1st pick

So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).

Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact. If you think that having the 1st or 2nd overall chance at winning the draft lotto means you have a worse chance than someone at #3 or #4, then you need to quit posting.

That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.

He took the 5th most shots on his team and took a lesser role and played hardcore defense. I wanna see his true potential when he decides to be THE MAN. He could be scary good.