Recruiting Rankings Do Mean Something but Hard to Say

Look, I have always been, and will continue to be, a firm believer in the value of recruiting rankings. There is a proven correlation between class rank and MNC appearances and victories. The teams who recruit the best, win the most. It's easily verifiable.

Yes, players will be missed from time to time. That's purely the nature evaluating. And even the highest level evaluators (NFL) mess up, overrate guys, etc. Physical attributes are pretty easy to evaluate, but work ethic, character, determination, will, etc. aren't. There are some super freak athletes that simply don't work and don't pan out (Ryan Perrilloux). There are some super freak athletes that work their asses off to be the best they can (Patrick Peterson). There are low ranked kids who become superstars (Mo Claiborne) and low ranked kids who become nothings (Derrick Bryant). Largely, the services circle the best talents and those talents are going to the best programs.

All that being said, we should also try and acknowledge other facts. I'll use Rivals for the purposes of this "study" simply because I believe it's the most commonly frequented recruiting site. Let's look at the state of Louisiana rankings from 2005-2012.

2005:
1) Ryan Perrilloux
2) Al Jones
3) Nic Harris
4) Darry Beckwith
5) Steven Korte

Others in this class: Chris Hawkins (7th), Lyle Hitt (12), Trindon Holliday (24).

Overall, a really weak year in the state. The best player was a bust, 2nd best nothing special, 3rd best was a good player at OU, but no longer in the NFL (I don't think), 4th was an average regular, and 5th didn't make it in college.

2006:
1) Al Woods
2) Charles Scott
3) Jared Mitchell
4) Richard Murphy
5) Chris Mitchell

Others in this class: 9) Jai Eugene, 11) Kentrell Lockett, 12) Jacob Cutrera, 14) Pep Levingston,

Okay year. Woods was an average regular. Scott was very good, but his football career is over. Mitchell was a fantastic baseball player but did nothing in football. Murphy was nothing. Mitchell, nothing. 3 SEC starters (though none great) outside of the top 10.

2007:
1) Joe McKnight
2) Chad Jones
3) DeAngelo Benton
4) Stefoin Francois
5) Drake Nevis

Others in this class: 7) Will Blackwell, 8) Josh Dworacyzk, 10) Frank Alexander, 15) Luther Davis, 20) Mitch Joseph

Lots of starters/contributors sprinkled throughout the rankings. Hard to argue who is the best overall player in the class, but for all his plaudits, McKnight was hardly a superstar.
2008:
1) Chris Tolliver
2) Brandon Taylor
3) Chase Clement
4) Matt Branch
5) Jordan Jefferson

Others in this class: 6) DeAngelo Peterson, 9) Jerico Nelson, 10) Robby Green, 11) Damaris Johnson, 15) PJ Smith, 16) LaRon Byrd, 17) Prentiss Waggner, 18) Randall Mackey, 21) Brandon Bolden, 32) PJ Lonergan, 33) Lavar Edwards

Overall, a tremendous class. Lots and lots of contributors from all over. But again, the top 5 is wretched. Matt Branch has barely played a snap at LSU. Chris Tolliver didn't do much then succumbed to concussions. Clement is nothing more than a solid regular. JJ's story has been rehashed enough.

2009:
1) Rueben Randle
2) Janzen Jackson
3) Chris Davenport
4) Chris Faulk
5) Michael Ford

Others in this class: 6) Eddie Lacy, 8) Barkevious Mingo, 9) Josh Downs, 10) DD Jones, 12) Kenny Bell, 13) Patrick Lewis, 20) Bennie Logan, 21) Morris Claiborne, 22) Tahj Jones

Mo is the best player in this class and was ranked 21st. Davenport has done nothing, to date. Randle was very good. Faulk and Ford are very good. Janzen was good, but his story is known. Solid set of rankings at the top, though many, many good players were missed.
2010:
1) Trovon Reed
2) Eric Reid
3) Jordan Allen
4) Ronnie Vinson
5) Tyrann Mathieu

Others in this class: 6) Tharold Simon, 10) James Wright, 18) Alfred Blue, 40) Brad Wing

Still early for this class, but the no. 1 player ranking looks atrocious next to a guy starting for the SEC champs, and a Heisman runner up. 3 and 4 not much better, considering they've hardly seen the field and been passed by younger guys. Blue also seeing serious run.

2011:
1) La'El Collins
2) Freak Johnson
3) Jarvis Landry
4) Odell Beckham Jr.
5) Kenny Hilliard

Others in this class: 6) Greg Robinson, 7) Brad Sylve, 9) Jermauria Rasco, 10) Corey White, 11) Mickey Johnson, 12) Jeremy Hill, 13) Trai Turner, 14) Chuck Hunter, 15) Terrance Magee, 27) Ronald Martin

Way too early to judge, but I will note that no. 27 in the state was already seeing PT last year as a true frosh.

2012:
1) Landon Collins
2) Denzell Devall
3) Torshiro Davis
4) Otha Peters
5) Dwayne Thomas

Others in the class: TBD

Obviously, rankings matter. But, my contention is that if you look back at the recent past rankings, you can obviously make a case for a number of guys outside the top 5 being the actual "no. 1" player in the state.

Does the tape show that Landon Collins and Devall and Davis are awesome? Absolutely. But it did for Joe McKnight, Ryan Perrilloux, et. al.

Since Chavis arrived, the staff has shown a superb talent for evaluation: Claiborne, Mathieu, Logan, Martin (potentially).

The 2012 rankings may prove to be completely accurate (though history suggest that's highly unlikely), but for LSU fans, we have to trust that the staff did a great job of evaluating and that guys like Derrick Raymond (37), Deion Jones (13), Ronnie Feist (18), etc. were well done.

Yeah yeah, tl;dr. Just some food for thought.