re: Vegas should have Bama fans very worried...

If most of the money were coming in on LSU, the line would not have moved in a way that encourages more LSU betting.

Many people do not understand that the pointspread is not made as a prediction of a game's outcome but simply as a way to divide the betting public on a game. If substantially more money is bet on Alabama, the line moves to encourage more money bet on LSU. If Vegas (etc.) can divided the betting public equally, then they have a sure thing because a 10% vig is charged on all lossing bets. In such cases, that 10% of all lossing bets is pocketed by the bookmaker as profit.

In a game as hyped as this one, the betting public (and, thus, the betting line) is influenced by what is said by ESPN's Talking Heads as well as bar talk (e.g. "It's hard to beat a good team twice in the same season.")

Therefore, it's little wonder that the betting public has favored the Gumps and moved the line. In the end, it has nothing to do with how the game will turn out. If it did, bettors would wait for those deals that happen "65% of the time" and make millions over the course of a season.