bpfergu's bowl picks - all of 'em! Follow me to win some moolah!

bookmarked,

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Don't you mean
Temple 37
Wyoming 24

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Yes! Thank you...it has been updated.

Temple damned near beat Penn St. We know Penn St is greatness. Gotta go with the team that almost beat greatness.

Up next in the list of bowls that don't matter is the New Orleans Bowl.

New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs (8-4 Overall) (4th in Mountain West at 4-3)

vs.

La.-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4 Overall) (3rd in Sun Belt at 6-2)

San Diego State
San Diego State has a serviceable offense, averaging over 420 yards/game to a tune just under 30 points/game. Their rushing is led by Ronnie Hillman, who is third in the nation in yards/game, averaging 138. He also has 19 touchdowns on the season. He rushed for over 100 yards in all but 2 games that he played in, and is their main workhouse, getting around 25 carries a game. Their senior QB, Ryan Lindley, has had a so-so year, passing for a little over 2700 yards with 20 TDs and 8 interceptions.

Their defense is somewhat vanilla, allowing 376 yards a game to a tune of 24 points/game. Their rush defense is especially weak, giving up 177 yards/game. There's not a whole lot to look at other than a couple standouts in Larry Parker Miles Burris who lead the team in interceptions and tackles for a loss, respectively.

One important note is that the are only 1-4 against other FBS winning programs this season, losing by nearly 2 touchdowns on average. And this is despite Hillman having pretty good games in all but TCU and Boise (in which he only had 3 plays due to being taken out of the game).

La.-Lafayette
The Ragin Cajuns have a pretty dormant offense, only averaging 380 yards/game. However, they are still able to put down 32 points/game. In fact, they scored at least 20 points per game and there were only 3 games where they scored less than 30, even in losses. Their running game is somewhat split between Alonzo Harris and their QB Blaine Gautier, although neither has been all that impressive. Combined, they have produced 1100 yards and 11 touchdowns. In addition, they are averaging 2 fumbles a game, with slightly over half of those not being recovered. Their QB, Gautier, despite only passing for around 2400 yards, has been very efficient, only throwing 5 interceptions compared to 20 TDs.

On the defensive side, they are very average allowing almost 400 yards a game. They have only held their opponents under 20 points 3 times this year. They have allowed their opponents to get into the red zone almost 5 times a game on average, however after playing Oklahoma State, this drove the average up some. Conversely, they have only reached the red zone 27 times, which is almost 2 times less per game than they allow.

Similar to San Diego State, most of their wins come from absolutely horrible competition. They only went 1-3 against winning FBS programs, and they ended the season losing 3 of their last 5.

The Verdict

Current line: -5 San Diego State, o/u 58.5

Things to consider:
La-Lafayette is 55th in the nation in rushing defense, but the average opponent they have played has been 76th in the nation in rushing offense, which is barely cresting 150 yards/game. Ronnie Hillman is averaging nearly that by himself, and the average opponent he has come up against this season is 82nd in the nation in rush defense, which is nearly identical.

That being said, he WILL rush for 150 yards this game. In games where the other team rushed for at least 150 yards, LA-Lafayette was 2-3 (but with one of those losses coming from Oklahoma State). In games other than Oklahoma State (because Oklahoma State is light years ahead on offense), the opposing teams' QB average yardage was right at 230 yards passing. Sure enough, Lindley is averaging 230 yards/game. It's a close call.

I predict Lafayette putting up somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-28 points. They have been able to put this many points up nearly all season, some of which were against better defenses.

San Diego State, against similar defenses, has scored on average in the mid 30s.

This game is really too close to call, and I would avoid it like the plague. That being said, the fact that it is so close makes me have a slight lean towards LA-Lafayette +5. It will really boil down to whether or not Ronnie Hillman can take over the game in the second half. Considering I think it will be close, I think if San Diego has the ball they are going to keep handing it off to Hillman to run down the clock. For that reason, my lean is also on the under ever so slightly.

Therefore, my final prediction is:

San Diego State - 31
LA Lafayette - 27

I would stay away from this game if I was you.

Oh, and no...I didn't just copy the score from the second bowl haha...I really think both games will be very similar scores.

The 4th Bowl I am doing is the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl

The only thing I know about this bowl is that Beef O’Brady’s has some pretty good cheese dip

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4 Overall) (4th in Sunbelt at 5-3)

Vs.

Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6 Overall) (2nd in Conference USA at 5-3)

Marshall
Marshall comes into this with a very stagnant offense, averaging 335 yards and only 22 points a game. They rank worst than 70th in every significant offensive category. Their leading rushers are Tron Martinez and Travon Van, neither of which has broken 55 yards/game for an average and combined have only amassed around 1150 yards at 6 TDs. Their QB is Rakeem Cato, and he too has been lackluster at best, passing for 1833 yards with 13 TDs and 10 interceptions. They have only been to the red zone 32 times this season, with all but 10 of those coming in their wins. In other words, in the 6 losses, they only made it to the red zone an average of less than 2 times a game.
Their defense is equally bad, allowing over 400 yards a game and 30 points. They have only limited their opponent to less than 20 points in 3 games. About their only bright spot is Vinny Curry, who is 6th in the nation in sacks and 2nd in the nation in tackles for a loss.

They’ve played the 95th most difficult schedule in the nation. They have played 7 teams with winning records and went 2-5 in them. Only 2 of their losses were within 2 possessions, and the rest were absolute blowouts.

Florida International Golden Panthers
FIU comes in with shockingly similar numbers on offense, averaging 369 yards/game. They are pretty well-balanced on offense, but neither their rushing game or passing game is anything to do flips over. Their one semi-bright store is their lead rusher, Kedrick Rhodes. He currently averages right under 100 yards/game and on the season he has went for 1121 yards but only 8 TDs. Their QB is Wesley Carroll, and he has went for 2220 yards with 14 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He is averaging 184 yards/game, but he didn’t play in 2 games so his average in games he has played is around 200.
Where FIU shines is on defense. On the season they are 23rd in the nation in rush defense, allowing 120 yards a game, 64th in pass defense, allowing 226 yards a game, and 16th in the nation in scoring defense, holding their opponents to less than 20 points a game. In fact, they have held their opponents to 20 points or less in 9 out of the 12 games they have played this season. In those games they went 7-2.

Their SOS has been awful. The played 4 teams with winning records this season and only beat 1, and that was Louisville by a TD.

The Verdict
Current line: Florida International -4, o/u 48.5

What we have here are two pretty vanilla teams other than FIU’s decent defense. The number that really strikes me is the fact that they have only allowed their opponents to score over 20 points 3 times on the season.
Sounds pretty impressive, right?
Not so fast. When digging a bit deeper, we find out that the stats are pretty inflated. Do you know what the average scoring offense FIU played against this season was?

82nd.

Let me repeat myself in case you missed it.

82nd.

They only played 2 teams the entire season that broke the top 30 in scoring offense.
And guess what? They lost both games.

In fact, in their 8 wins, the average offense they came up against ranked 92nd IN THE NATION. Shoot, I would look good against those offenses!

On the contrary, Marshall has played some teams this season with decent defenses. They have played against the 29th, the 31st, the 8th, the 14th, and the 11th best defenses and went 2-3 against them. However, in those losses the teams that beat them had significantly better offenses than FIU.

In short, I think FIU’s defense is massively overrated. However, Marshall has a horrible offense. But at the same time, Marshall has played on average the 52nd hardest defense, which is significantly higher than what FIU has faced.

Acknowledging all of this, I think Marshall plays a little better than their number suggest, and FIU's defense does a little worst than assumed against what most would consider a stagnant Marshal offense. So it is sort of a wash, and I expect Marshall to put out slightly above its average, so around 24 points. In addition, I think Marshall's defense is more battle-hardened due to its stronger schedule and will hold FIU to the average or slightly below.

I'm calling the upset.

My pick:
Marshall – 24
FIU – 21

So I’m taking Marshall +4 and the under

Work + school has been crazy lately so I haven’t been able to keep up with this. I’ll try to start back up now seeing how bowls start tomorrow.

Up next is the gheyest named bowl of them all.

The Poinsettia Bowl.

Poinsettia Bowl
No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2 Overall) (7-0 in Mountain West)

Vs.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4 Overall) (6-2 in Western Athletic)

Dear TCU, this is what happens when you play in a shitty conference. If you lose any games then you have to go to shitty bowls.

TCU
The Horned Frogs come into this game with a pretty viable offense both on the ground and in the air. They are averaging over 200 yards/game rushing and another 234 through the air. They perform to the tune of 444 yards of total yards/game and are 9th in the country in scoring. Their QB is Casey Pachall, and has had a pretty good season. While he isn’t putting up gaudy numbers in terms of total yardage, he is incredibly efficient and consistent, completing 68% of his passes for 24 TDs and only 6 interceptions.

They have a trio of running threats in Ed Wesley, Waymon James, and Matthew Tucker. Combined these three have amassed nearly 2200 yards and 16 TDs.

Their two losses have come to Baylor and SMU. They lost to Baylor by 2 points and loss to SMU in overtime, so they very easily could have ran the table again this year if a few things would have went their way. That being said, they are a crappy field goal kicker away from being 9-3 with a loss to Boise State.

Their SOS is 67th and they are 5-2 against winning FBS teams.

Louisiana Tech
Tech has a well-balanced, although normal offensive game. They average 150 yards on the ground and another 247 through the air, and earn approximately 31 points a game. Their QB, Nick Isham, had a rather disappointing year, producing only 1457 yards passing with 8 TDs and 7 interceptions. However, he was replaced halfway through the season by Colby Cameron. This provided them with the spark they needed. He is averaging around 250 yards a game with 11 TDs and on 2 interceptions over the 5 games he has started in.

Their RB duo consists of Lennon Creer and Hunter Lee. While neither has been spectacular, they have produced 1400 yards and 13 TDs.

Their main go-to receiver has been Quinton Patton. He is averaging nearly 100 yards a game receiving and has 10 TDs on the season.

Tech’s defense is really what has kept them alive in many of their wins and several of their close losses as well. They only allow 122 yards on the ground per game, but nearly 253 through the air. That being said, they have limited their opponents to less than 23 points a game on average. This is in part due to not allowing many opportunities for their opponents to get into the red zone. They are somewhat lax in allowing big plays in the middle of the field, but they are only allowing the other team to get to the red zone a little over 2 times a game.

Their SOS is very similar at 73, and they are 2-2 against winning FBS teams.

The Verdict:
TCU -10.5
o/u 55.5

Both teams are currently riding 7-game winning streaks, with Latech playing the difficult part of its schedule at the beginning of the season. The only team that thoroughly beat Latech was Hawaii by 18 points. In their other 3 losses, they lost by a combined total of 8 points. In addition, those other 3 teams weren’t slouches. They loss to an 11-2 Southern Miss who ended up beating a top 5 Houston team in their last game, Houston itself, which lead the nation in offense and scoring, and a Mississippi State team that had to go through the brutal SEC West and would probably be a 9+ win team and ranked if they were in another conference.

In addition, they have won against teams with pretty good offenses. Specifically, they have played 5 teams in top 35 in scoring and went 3-2.

TCU has handily beat just about everyone they have played other than in their 2 losses and what should have been a loss against Boise St. 5 of their other wins have come against teams with winning records, though.

I feel that a very good comparison will be the result when TCU played BYU earlier this year. BYU was another team that only got thumped once, and lost a game that they easily could have won. They are very similar to Lousiana Tech in terms of offense and SOS, with a slightly more potent defense. The real key to beating TCU is to outscore them, which BYU obviously wasn’t able to do. The magic number seems to be the high 30s. If a team is able to crest 35 or so then they can beat TCU.

LaTech has been able to do so a few times this season, but against much weaker teams with much worst defenses. However, since Cameron took over, they have been able to do so in 3 of their last 5 games.

In conclusion, I feel that TCU is the better team, but LaTech has played better teams than TCU close this year. In addition, they have only let teams score more than 36 on them twice. Finally, Cameron has provided them with a more viable passing threat.

That being said, TCU wins this by a touchdown or so, with LaTech falling just short of that magic mid-30s number

My score:
TCU: 34
Latech: 28

So I’m taking LaTech +10.5 and the over

Please keep posting man, Temple game played out very nicley today. TIA

No idea where this got moved to...

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So I’m taking Marshall +4 and the under

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I did the same