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re: LSU v. Alabama -- BCS NGC 01/09/12 @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:40 am to lsumatt
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:40 am to lsumatt
I can't believe this is happening. So not only could their be incompetence or even fraud, but it would be untraceable because Sagarin's results aren't published.
3
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:41 am to loweralabamatrojan
Sagarin never makes any sense. Ever other computer poll, you can at least "oh, I see that". But every year I scratch my head and am completely puzzled by sagarin.
OK State beat #6 OU and got almost no bump and LSU LOST points for beating 10-2 Georgia. Sagarin claims OSU played a much harder schedule than Bama but have Bama above them. None of this is explainable.
Also, the poll "snowballs" SOS. Once a conference gets a great OOC record, its game, set, match. At one point the Big 12 had 6 teams in the top 10. Texas A&M at 6-6 is still top 15 I think!
OK State beat #6 OU and got almost no bump and LSU LOST points for beating 10-2 Georgia. Sagarin claims OSU played a much harder schedule than Bama but have Bama above them. None of this is explainable.
Also, the poll "snowballs" SOS. Once a conference gets a great OOC record, its game, set, match. At one point the Big 12 had 6 teams in the top 10. Texas A&M at 6-6 is still top 15 I think!
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:41 am to SLTiger29
The results are published, it's his methods that aren't, apparently.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:43 am to SLTiger29
You know, I won't call fraud. But last year COLLEY had an error in his poll - a big one in the final poll that switched LSU and Boise in the OVERALL BCS standings. Colley actually publishes his algorithm, so people thankfully caught it.
If sagarin makes an error, who is to find out?
If sagarin makes an error, who is to find out?
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:45 am to lsumatt
I get it. The BCS uses a component (Sagarin) in its system that has no accountability. Even if it is just one component, one faulty component can ruin the integrity of the entire system, and there is no fail safe.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:49 am to loweralabamatrojan
The Colley Matrix for example isn't perfect. But the algorithm is published, the logic and math is fundamentally sound, and I can and have reproduced it to be sure we get the same results. When team A beats B, their rating change at least makes sense.
Sagarin is not predictable, the results make little sense, and nobody has any way of knowing if an error was made.
Sagarin is not predictable, the results make little sense, and nobody has any way of knowing if an error was made.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:52 am to lsumatt
It certainly doesn't make sense to me that a team would lose points for beating a top 10 team.
I also have a hard time with the fact that oSu gets no bump after beating a top 10 team.
Spooky action CFB style.
I also have a hard time with the fact that oSu gets no bump after beating a top 10 team.
Spooky action CFB style.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:59 am to loweralabamatrojan
quote:
I also have a hard time with the fact that oSu gets no bump after beating a top 10 team.
If it costs OSU, T Boone Pickens may fork up some cash for a lawsuit requiring Sagarin to release his algorithm.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:00 am to lsumatt
Can anybody get a copy of the Wolfe rankings from 2 weeks ago (i.e. before the LSU/Arkansas game). I might have the poll figured out but need to see a week-to-week comparison
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:04 am to lsumatt
The BCS uses ELO_CHESS, but I believe I've read that Sagarin himself prefers PREDICTOR.
Are they two different algorithms, or the same algorithm with different variables?
Are they two different algorithms, or the same algorithm with different variables?
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:06 am to loweralabamatrojan
predictor includes MOV and other factors (maybe timing of loss). It might even include some of last years results. It is a better "predictor" if you were betting on games.
EloChess is probably more politically correct and maybe better for determining the "most deserving" team.
EloChess is probably more politically correct and maybe better for determining the "most deserving" team.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:09 am to lsumatt
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:10 am to lsumatt
I hate having to wait! But its so exciting....
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 5:11 am
Posted on 12/4/11 at 5:12 am to loweralabamatrojan
Thanks Trojan - but I need to see there actual rating score (like 7.192) not their place in the rankings.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 6:28 am to purplepylon
This is going to be fun! Go Pokes!
Posted on 12/4/11 at 6:34 am to SLTiger29
Sagarin hates LSU
Posted on 12/4/11 at 6:41 am to Ice Cold
Here is the good thing! LSU is in! We are not worried about a vote or a computer. Bring it on! 
Posted on 12/4/11 at 7:10 am to lsumatt
quote:
sagarin makes an error, who is to find out?
I think it makes no difference. The ESPN crew has predetermined Bama as in and there is nothing anyone can do about it. You see, we are encroaching in Bama territory and we are not welcome. So if they believe that Bama will beat us a second time then Bama is in.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 7:14 am to lsumatt
If I'm reading things correctly, it appears that both LSU and Okalhoma State got a bump in Sagarin's computer, but Oklahoma State didn't get enough of a bump to jump Alabama. Alabama actually lost ground this weekend.
Last week
LSU - 101.91
Alabama - 99.08
Oklahoma State - 95.65
This week
LSU - 102.97
Alabama - 98.99
Oklahoma State - 97.31
If either LSU or Oklahoma State had lost ground, I would be more concerned. But even holding on to just one #2 ranking in the computers helps Alabama and means that Oklahoma State will need to flip a little more than just 25% of them to jump Alabama.
Last week
LSU - 101.91
Alabama - 99.08
Oklahoma State - 95.65
This week
LSU - 102.97
Alabama - 98.99
Oklahoma State - 97.31
If either LSU or Oklahoma State had lost ground, I would be more concerned. But even holding on to just one #2 ranking in the computers helps Alabama and means that Oklahoma State will need to flip a little more than just 25% of them to jump Alabama.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 7:21 am
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